Matz Sels
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matz Sels's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-6.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 97.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.0M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2667 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1595
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €963k – €2.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; team strength up (+63 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -71% to -35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | GK | 31 | 2667 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1595 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1571 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | GK | 19 | 1710 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1475 | 1393 | 0.87 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | GK | 16 | 1440 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1573 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1441 | 1441 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1427 | 1503 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | GK | 6 | 540 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1461 | 1380 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | GK | 27 | 2430 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1421 | 1430 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1460 | 1408 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 22 | 1980 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1345 | 1490 | 0.63 |
| 2015/16 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1328 | 1479 | 0.57 |
| 2014/15 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1313 | 1432 | 0.54 |
| 2013/14 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 9 | 810 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1339 | 1322 | 0.49 |
| 2012/13 | Lierse SK (- 2018) | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1389 | 1232 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 391 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1460 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | RSC Anderlecht | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1848 |
| 2017/18 | Volkswagen Supercup | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1405 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | KAA Gent | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2015/16 | Volkswagen Supercup | KAA Gent | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1577 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorka Iraizoz Laliga · 2014 | 33 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Hugo Lloris Premier League · 2023 | 37 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Petr Cech Premier League · 2018 | 36 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Kasper Schmeichel Premier League · 2022 | 36 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Carlos Kameni Laliga · 2016 | 32 | €5.0M | €450k | fell |
| Lukasz Fabianski Premier League · 2019 | 34 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Beto Laliga · 2014 | 32 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Tim Howard Premier League · 2014 | 35 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2024 | R. Strasbourg | Nott'm Forest | €6.5M | €7.0M |
| 26 Jul 2018 | Newcastle | R. Strasbourg | €4.0M | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | RSC Anderlecht | Newcastle | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Newcastle | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | KAA Gent | Newcastle | €6.6M | €6.5M |
| 3 Jan 2014 | Lierse SK | KAA Gent | €810k | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Lierse SK U19 | Lierse SK | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Lierse SK U17 | Lierse SK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Lierse SK Yth. | Lierse SK U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.