Álvaro Morata

33 yrs · Striker (also SS) · Spain
Como 1907 · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 189 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.8M – €7.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.6M – €4.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.5M – €3.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.8M – €1.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.8M – €7.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.6M – €4.7M
Projected value (24 months)€1.5M – €3.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Álvaro Morata's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-4.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-7.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (924 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAbove average70th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.7 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €4.6M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-65% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €65.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
924 (27% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.20
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.36
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
70 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1589
Opponent strength
1514
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.5M – €3.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; changed club; league level up (+64 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -76% to -56%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 924 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Como 1907Serie AST2692427%020.190.36151415890.93
2024/25AC MilanSerie AST16110432%510.490.42151216250.99
2024/25GalatasaraySuper LigSS1259118%631.370.54125915570.39
2023/24Atlético de MadridLaligaST32190956%1540.900.56148916671.00
2022/23Atlético de MadridLaligaST36190656%1320.710.48148316560.98
2021/22Juventus FCSerie AST35231268%970.620.37147116230.89
2020/21Juventus FCSerie AST32201859%11100.940.46145016980.90
2019/20Atlético de MadridLaligaST34210662%1220.600.43152817591.16
2018/19Atlético de MadridLaligaST15108932%610.580.35154917361.14
2018/19Chelsea FCPremier LeagueST1694328%500.480.34153017501.22
2017/18Chelsea FCPremier LeagueST31206660%1160.740.49154716671.15
2016/17Real MadridLaligaST26133239%1551.350.41147619221.11
2015/16Juventus FCSerie AST34145643%770.870.40144818080.95
2014/15Juventus FCSerie AST29132039%850.890.38146717940.93
2013/14Real MadridLaligaST2356116%801.280.43148418591.19
2012/13Real MadridLaligaST1241112%210.660.40156717731.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupComo 190747410—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAC Milan7395111654
2024/25Supercoppa ItalianaAC Milan2172001763
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueGalatasaray190001463
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid10668511668
2023/24Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid530110—
2023/24SupercopaAtlético de Madrid190001810
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid5297001588
2022/23Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid429321—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC7521211628
2021/22Italy CupJuventus FC528410—
2021/22Supercoppa ItalianaJuventus FC188011771
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC8598611621
2020/21Italy CupJuventus FC320121—
2020/21Supercoppa ItalianaJuventus FC17101608
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid8485321655
2019/20SupercopaAtlético de Madrid2210111797
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueChelsea FC4231201475
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid2122001837
2018/19Fa CupChelsea FC17520—
2018/19Community ShieldChelsea FC169001831
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC7383101750
2017/18Fa CupChelsea FC619120—
2017/18Community ShieldChelsea FC116001681
2016/17Copa Del ReyReal Madrid529620—
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid9166311538
2016/17Uefa Super CupReal Madrid162001643
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC8534221708
2015/16Italy CupJuventus FC538732—
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC12744521714

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Papu Gómez
Laliga · 2023
35€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Éder
Serie A · 2018
32€7.0M€1.6Mfell
Luis Muriel
Serie A · 2023
32€5.0M€1.2Mfell
Emmanuel Adebayor
Premier League · 2015
31€5.0M€2.3Mfell
Willian José
Laliga · 2023
32€6.0M€1.8Mfell
Duván Zapata
Serie A · 2023
32€8.0M€3.5Mfell
Arkadiusz Milik
Serie A · 2024
30€6.0M€1.5Mfell
Aleksandr Kerzhakov
Premier Liga · 2015
33€2.8M€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026ComoAC MilanFree / loan€6.0M
12 Aug 2025AC MilanComoFree / loan€11.0M
10 Aug 2025GalatasarayAC MilanFree / loan€11.0M
2 Feb 2025AC MilanGalatasarayFree / loan€13.0M
19 Jul 2024AtléticoAC Milan€17.2M€16.0M
30 Jun 2022JuventusAtléticoFree / loan€25.0M
22 Sept 2020AtléticoJuventusFree / loan€36.0M
1 Jul 2020ChelseaAtlético€35.0M€36.0M
30 Jun 2020AtléticoChelseaFree / loan€36.0M
28 Jan 2019ChelseaAtléticoFree / loan€50.0M
21 Jul 2017Real MadridChelsea€66.0M€40.0M
1 Jul 2016JuventusReal Madrid€30.0M€30.0M
19 Jul 2014Real MadridJuventus€20.0M€12.0M
1 Jul 2013RM CastillaReal MadridUnknown€9.0M
1 Jul 2010Real Madrid U19RM CastillaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Real Madrid U18Real Madrid U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Getafe CF YouthReal Madrid U18Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Atlético Yth.Getafe CF YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Álvaro Morata · MoneyballAI