Duván Zapata

35 yrs · Striker · Colombia
Torino FC · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.0M – €3.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€508k – €1.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€820k – €2.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.7M – €519k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.0M – €3.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€508k – €1.5M
Projected value (24 months)€820k – €2.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Duván Zapata's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (1096 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAbove average58.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.9M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-56% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €45.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1096 (32% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.33
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.49
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
59 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1419
Opponent strength
1509
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€820k – €2.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -70% (IQR -76% to -56%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1096 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Torino FCSerie AST28109632%310.330.49150914190.93
2024/25Torino FCSerie AST758917%300.460.53153414580.99
2023/24Torino FCSerie AST35289285%1240.500.55148215100.98
2023/24Atalanta BCSerie AST21133%100.800.38130217090.98
2022/23Atalanta BCSerie AST25139341%230.320.35147715560.94
2021/22Atalanta BCSerie AST24173251%1050.780.46145915660.89
2020/21Atalanta BCSerie AST37239270%15100.940.50146416730.90
2019/20Atalanta BCSerie AST28203660%1871.110.58142516660.82
2018/19Atalanta BCSerie AST37289985%2370.930.70146015700.78
2017/18UC SampdoriaSerie AST31211562%1140.640.69150713930.86
2016/17Udinese CalcioSerie AST38315492%1050.430.50148613790.88
2015/16Udinese CalcioSerie AST25151244%830.650.80148313580.95
2014/15SSC NapoliSerie AST2161318%611.030.41139016150.93
2013/14SSC NapoliSerie AST1656817%521.110.48141216510.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupTorino FC21900—
2024/25Italy CupTorino FC213510—
2023/24Italy CupTorino FC17800—
2022/23Italy CupAtalanta BC211702—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC6464321633
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueAtalanta BC2118001690
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC8524321663
2020/21Italy CupAtalanta BC429112—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC5323121654
2018/19Italy CupAtalanta BC543931—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingAtalanta BC6319201398
2017/18Italy CupUC Sampdoria19000—
2016/17Italy CupUdinese Calcio19010—
2015/16Italy CupUdinese Calcio11900—
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueSSC Napoli8401211455
2014/15Italy CupSSC Napoli111101—
2014/15Uefa Champions League QualifyingSSC Napoli113001626
2013/14Italy CupSSC Napoli17100—
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli359101627
2013/14Uefa Europa LeagueSSC Napoli220101666

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Edinson Cavani
Laliga · 2023
36€3.0M€1.0Mfell
André Ayew
Ligue 1 · 2024
35€1.0M€250kfell
Rickie Lambert
Premier League · 2016
34€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Radamel Falcao
Laliga · 2023
37€2.0M€150kfell
Kike García
Laliga · 2024
35€1.0M€700kfell
Simon Terodde
Bundesliga · 2020
32€2.4M€1.0Mfell
Antonio Floro Flores
Serie A · 2016
33€1.5M€300kfell
Gianluca Lapadula
Serie A · 2024
34€1.5M€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024AtalantaTorino€8.6M€8.0M
30 Jun 2024TorinoAtalantaFree / loan€8.0M
1 Sept 2023AtalantaTorinoFree / loan€8.0M
17 Jan 2020SampdoriaAtalanta€12.0M€45.0M
16 Jan 2020AtalantaSampdoriaFree / loan€45.0M
12 Jul 2018SampdoriaAtalantaFree / loan€20.0M
1 Jul 2018NapoliSampdoria€18.5M€20.0M
30 Jun 2018SampdoriaNapoliFree / loan€20.0M
31 Aug 2017NapoliSampdoriaFree / loan€8.5M
30 Jun 2017UdineseNapoliFree / loan€8.5M
22 Jul 2015NapoliUdineseFree / loan€7.5M
25 Aug 2013Estudiantes LPNapoli€7.5M€3.0M
1 Jul 2011CD AméricaEstudiantes LP€90k€150k
1 Jan 2008CD América U20CD AméricaUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Duván Zapata · MoneyballAI