Mathew Ryan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mathew Ryan's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 85.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3240 (95% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1483
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €554k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 54 pts; changed club; team strength down (-65 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -53% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Levante UD | Laliga | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1483 | 1420 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | GK | 14 | 1260 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1427 | 1484 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | GK | 29 | 2610 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1321 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | GK | 18 | 1620 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1331 | 1530 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | GK | 6 | 540 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1265 | 1492 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | GK | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1533 | 1559 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | GK | 11 | 990 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1563 | 1492 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | GK | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1446 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1600 | 1449 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1540 | 1417 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1546 | 1466 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 6 | 540 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1345 | 1500 | 0.62 |
| 2016/17 | Valencia CF | Laliga | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1448 | 1499 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Valencia CF | Laliga | GK | 8 | 720 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1502 | 1556 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 27 | 2430 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1309 | 1574 | 0.54 |
| 2013/14 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1323 | 1473 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1276 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1421 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1518 |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Valencia CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1623 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Club Brugge KV | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | 1470 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1393 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1333 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Foster Premier League · 2017 | 34 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Artem Rebrov Premier Liga · 2015 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Andreas Luthe Bundesliga · 2021 | 34 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Antonio Mirante Serie A · 2018 | 35 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Emiliano Viviano Serie A · 2018 | 33 | €2.0M | €650k | fell |
| Ilya Abaev Premier Liga · 2014 | 33 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Vicente Guaita Premier League · 2020 | 33 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Édgar Badía Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2025 | Lens | Levante | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 21 Jan 2025 | Roma | Lens | €750k | €2.5M |
| 17 Jul 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | Roma | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 9 Jan 2023 | Copenhagen | AZ Alkmaar | €500k | €5.0M |
| 9 Aug 2022 | Real Sociedad | Copenhagen | €500k | €5.0M |
| 12 Jul 2021 | Brighton | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Arsenal | Brighton | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 22 Jan 2021 | Brighton | Arsenal | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Valencia | Brighton | €6.0M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Genk | Valencia | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jan 2017 | Valencia | Genk | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 21 Jul 2015 | Club Brugge | Valencia | €7.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Central Coast | Club Brugge | €125k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2010 | Blacktown City | Central Coast | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Mar 2010 | Central Coast | Blacktown City | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Apr 2009 | Blacktown City | Central Coast | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.