Hördur Magnússon

33 yrs · Centre-back (also LB) · Iceland
APO Levadiakos Football Club · Super League 1 · Foot: left · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€450k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€104k – €565k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€165k – €433k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€143k – €403k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€399k – €328k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€104k – €565k
Model value (performance-implied)€165k – €433k
Projected value (24 months)€143k – €403k
Dashed line: current market value (€450k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Hördur Magnússon's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average23th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €252k vs market €450k
Expected appreciationVery low-45% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1373 (59% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.04
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
23 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1260
Opponent strength
1242
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€143k – €403k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -54% to -30%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1373 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
55%–230%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26APO Levadiakos Football ClubSuper League 1CB17137359%000.000.04124212600.43
2023/24Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1CB31647%100.550.08119114530.42
2022/23Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1CB15129255%100.070.05123114140.37
2021/22PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB42268%000.000.05128313630.52
2020/21PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB22185569%110.100.08134413830.55
2019/20PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB27238588%200.080.07138114470.63
2018/19PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB23181767%200.100.07138715470.69
2014/15Cesena FCSerie ALB1299629%010.090.13146012990.93

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasAPO Levadiakos Football Club327010—
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos6570001505
2023/24Uefa Europa LeaguePanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos190001552
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos2180001557
2022/23Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos19000—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeaguePFK CSKA Moskva5438001498
2020/21Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva19000—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeaguePFK CSKA Moskva6531001446
2019/20Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva19000—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeaguePFK CSKA Moskva3237001712
2018/19Russian Super CupPFK CSKA Moskva1120001516

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rachid Hamdani
Super League 1 · 2017
32€500k€500kflat
Lionel Carole
Super Lig · 2024
33€550k€200kfell
Christos Karypidis
Super League 1 · 2015
33€400k€250kfell
Georgios Zisopoulos
Super League 1 · 2017
33€450k€150kfell
Athanasios Moulopoulos
Super League 1 · 2016
31€350k€200kfell
Georgios Delizisis
Super League 1 · 2020
33€300k€200kfell
Seán Dillon
Scottish Premiership · 2015
32€375k€300kfell
Pavlo Kutas
Premier Liga · 2015
33€400k€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
22 Sept 2025Without ClubLevadiakosUnknown€600k
1 Jul 2025PanathinaikosWithout ClubUnknown€600k
9 Jul 2022CSKA MoscowPanathinaikosFree / loan€2.5M
1 Jul 2018Bristol CityCSKA Moscow€2.8M€1.5M
13 Jul 2016JuventusBristol City€2.1M€600k
30 Jun 2016CesenaJuventusFree / loan€600k
25 Jul 2014JuventusCesenaFree / loan€400k
24 Jul 2014Spezia CalcioJuventus€1.0M€400k
5 Aug 2013Juventus U19Spezia Calcio€1.0M€100k
1 Jul 2012Fram ReykjavíkJuventus U19Unknown€50k
30 Jun 2012Juventus U19Fram ReykjavíkFree / loan€50k
18 Feb 2011Fram ReykjavíkJuventus U19Free / loanData unavailable
6 Apr 2009Fram U19Fram ReykjavíkUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.