
Hördur Magnússon
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hördur Magnússon's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 23th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €252k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1373 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1242
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €143k – €403k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -54% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1373 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | APO Levadiakos Football Club | Super League 1 | CB | 17 | 1373 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1242 | 1260 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | CB | 3 | 164 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.08 | 1191 | 1453 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | CB | 15 | 1292 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1231 | 1414 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 4 | 226 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1283 | 1363 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1855 | 69% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1344 | 1383 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2385 | 88% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1381 | 1447 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 1817 | 67% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1387 | 1547 | 0.69 |
| 2014/15 | Cesena FC | Serie A | LB | 12 | 996 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1460 | 1299 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | APO Levadiakos Football Club | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | 1505 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1552 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1557 |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 5 | 438 | 0 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 531 | 0 | 0 | 1446 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 237 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
| 2018/19 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachid Hamdani Super League 1 · 2017 | 32 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Lionel Carole Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €550k | €200k | fell |
| Christos Karypidis Super League 1 · 2015 | 33 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Georgios Zisopoulos Super League 1 · 2017 | 33 | €450k | €150k | fell |
| Athanasios Moulopoulos Super League 1 · 2016 | 31 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Georgios Delizisis Super League 1 · 2020 | 33 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Seán Dillon Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 32 | €375k | €300k | fell |
| Pavlo Kutas Premier Liga · 2015 | 33 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sept 2025 | Without Club | Levadiakos | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Panathinaikos | Without Club | Unknown | €600k |
| 9 Jul 2022 | CSKA Moscow | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Bristol City | CSKA Moscow | €2.8M | €1.5M |
| 13 Jul 2016 | Juventus | Bristol City | €2.1M | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Cesena | Juventus | Free / loan | €600k |
| 25 Jul 2014 | Juventus | Cesena | Free / loan | €400k |
| 24 Jul 2014 | Spezia Calcio | Juventus | €1.0M | €400k |
| 5 Aug 2013 | Juventus U19 | Spezia Calcio | €1.0M | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Fram Reykjavík | Juventus U19 | Unknown | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Juventus U19 | Fram Reykjavík | Free / loan | €50k |
| 18 Feb 2011 | Fram Reykjavík | Juventus U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Apr 2009 | Fram U19 | Fram Reykjavík | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.