Francesco Acerbi

The model rates Francesco Acerbi's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-1.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1379 (40% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.00

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.02

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

95 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.93 (rank 4)

Team strength (Elo)

1722

Opponent strength

1514

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€909k – €1.9M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-96 Elo); relative output down 50% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -68% (IQR -91% to -33%).

• ▲Age 38: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Limited sample: 1379 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.