Liam Polworth
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Liam Polworth's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1621 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 7.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €57k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1621 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1223
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €70k – €116k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-67 Elo); relative output up 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -47% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1621 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 28 | 1621 | 55% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 1223 | 1104 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 22 | 1457 | 49% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1219 | 1171 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 24 | 1613 | 54% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 1273 | 1243 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 23 | 1549 | 52% | 1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 1318 | 1144 | 0.40 |
| 2020/21 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 21 | 1537 | 52% | 0 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 1331 | 1249 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 30 | 2460 | 91% | 1 | 11 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 1285 | 1296 | 0.52 |
| 2016/17 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 32 | 2382 | 70% | 3 | 6 | 0.34 | 0.30 | 1301 | 1213 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 36 | 2862 | 84% | 6 | 8 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 1259 | 1324 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 5 | 134 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1484 | 1322 | 0.41 |
| 2013/14 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 19 | 707 | 21% | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 1315 | 1305 | 0.44 |
| 2012/13 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 3 | 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1320 | 1326 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1392 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1382 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 3 | 247 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Motherwell FC | 3 | 263 | 1 | 2 | 1319 |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 3 | 274 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 7 | 634 | 2 | 7 | — |
| 2016/17 | Scottish Fa Cup | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 5 | 275 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Scottish Fa Cup | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamad Sylla Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €125k | €75k | fell |
| Daan Rienstra Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Ryan Flynn Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 31 | €250k | €300k | rose |
| Stefanos Siontis Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €200k | €75k | fell |
| Jacob Schoop Superliga · 2021 | 33 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| José Alberto Cañas Super League 1 · 2022 | 35 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Cenk Ahmet Alkilic Super Lig · 2021 | 34 | €275k | €100k | fell |
| Aymen Tahar Super League 1 · 2021 | 32 | €250k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Kilmarnock FC | Livingston FC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 9 May 2022 | Dunfermline A. | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €450k |
| 28 Feb 2022 | Kilmarnock FC | Dunfermline A. | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Motherwell FC | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Inverness CT | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Inverness U20 | Inverness CT | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Inverness U17 | Inverness U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.