Magomed Ozdoev

33 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also AM, CM) · Russia

Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm

Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028

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Market value

€1.2M

Updated 7 days ago

Estimated acquisition

€273k – €1.3M

Estimated · 20–80% range

Model value

€730k – €3.2M

Performance-implied · estimated

Projected (24m)

€251k – €789k

Resale range · estimated

Potential value gap

-€524k – €3.0M

Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€273k – €1.3M

Model value (performance-implied)€730k – €3.2M

Projected value (24 months)€251k – €789k

Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Magomed Ozdoev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.63x the positional average in the league (1601 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

Performance	Above average	68.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
Age	Unfavorable	33.7 years
Acquisition cost	Very favorable	est. €669k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciation	Very low	-67% over ~2 years (model)
Value gap	Large	weak predictor on its own
Development	Low
League translation	Uncertain	league coefficient 0.43
Tactical fit	Not evaluated	Requires event/role data not available from the current free source.
Risk	High
Data confidence	Medium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes: 1601 (68% of available)
Goals + assists / 90: 0.56
Context-adjusted G+A / 90: 0.33
xG, xA, progression: Data unavailable
Defensive actions: Data unavailable
Performance percentile: 69 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength: 0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo): 1461
Opponent strength: 1232
Possession, role: Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development: Low
Trajectory: improving
Breakout probability: Age > 23
Resale range (24m): €251k – €789k

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+83 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo); relative output up 222% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -67% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
⚠Limited sample: 1601 league minutes last season.
⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers: 14 (MID)
Relative output kept: 67%–189%
Held a regular role (900+ min): 64%
Confidence: Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

Season	Club	League	Pos	Apps	Min	Min share	G	A	G+A/90	Adj. G+A/90	Opp. Elo	Team Elo	League str.
2025/26	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	Super League 1	DM	24	1601	68%	7	3	0.56	0.33	1232	1461	0.43
2024/25	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	Super League 1	DM	20	1319	56%	1	1	0.14	0.11	1279	1378	0.35
2023/24	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	Super League 1	DM	26	1805	77%	5	1	0.30	0.17	1248	1535	0.42
2022/23	Fatih Karagümrük	Super Lig	CM	33	2752	85%	5	6	0.36	0.29	1290	1354	0.50
2021/22	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	Premier Liga	CM	13	250	9%	1	1	0.72	0.16	1330	1530	0.52
2020/21	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	Premier Liga	CM	28	1882	70%	0	5	0.24	0.13	1334	1544	0.55
2019/20	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	Premier Liga	DM	26	2183	81%	3	4	0.29	0.15	1379	1594	0.63
2018/19	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	Premier Liga	DM	16	955	35%	0	1	0.09	0.07	1390	1533	0.69
2017/18	FC Rubin Kazan	Premier Liga	AM	19	1640	61%	1	3	0.22	0.36	1419	1403	0.75
2017/18	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	Premier Liga	CM	4	244	9%	0	0	0.00	0.12	1402	1581	0.75
2016/17	FC Rubin Kazan	Premier Liga	DM	10	613	23%	0	0	0.00	0.07	1426	1373	0.70
2016/17	RFK Akhmat Grozny	Premier Liga	DM	6	381	14%	0	0	0.00	0.08	1434	1429	0.70
2015/16	FC Rubin Kazan	Premier Liga	DM	29	2540	94%	2	3	0.18	0.13	1462	1410	0.79
2014/15	FC Rubin Kazan	Premier Liga	DM	29	2469	91%	6	1	0.26	0.15	1444	1517	0.88
2013/14	Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва	Premier Liga	AM	13	432	16%	1	3	0.83	0.44	1453	1580	0.92
2012/13	Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва	Premier Liga	DM	10	493	18%	1	1	0.37	0.18	1344	1513	0.88

Cups & continental competitions

Season	Competition	Club	Apps	Min	G	A	Avg opp. Elo
2025/26	Uefa Europa League	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	9	633	0	1	1515
2025/26	Kypello Elladas	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	7	570	1	1	—
2025/26	Uefa Europa League Qualifying	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	4	235	0	0	1355
2024/25	Uefa Europa League	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	9	673	0	0	1532
2024/25	Uefa Champions League Qualifying	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	4	321	0	1	1353
2024/25	Kypello Elladas	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	2	174	0	0	—
2024/25	Uefa Europa League Qualifying	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	2	161	1	0	1271
2023/24	Kypello Elladas	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	3	128	0	0	—
2023/24	Uefa Conference League Qualifying	Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton	3	54	0	0	1337
2021/22	Russian Cup	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	1	90	0	0	—
2021/22	Russian Super Cup	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	1	90	0	0	1457
2021/22	Uefa Champions League	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	1	11	1	0	1801
2020/21	Uefa Champions League	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	5	321	0	0	1614
2020/21	Russian Cup	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	1	90	0	0	—
2020/21	Russian Super Cup	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	1	88	1	0	1462
2019/20	Uefa Champions League	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	6	465	1	2	1640
2019/20	Russian Cup	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	3	224	0	0	—
2019/20	Russian Super Cup	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	1	90	0	0	1499
2018/19	Uefa Europa League	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	5	272	1	0	1526
2018/19	Russian Cup	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	2	176	0	0	—
2018/19	Uefa Europa League Qualifying	AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg	2	10	0	0	1437
2017/18	Russian Cup	FC Rubin Kazan	2	180	0	0	—
2016/17	Russian Cup	FC Rubin Kazan	2	210	0	0	—
2015/16	Uefa Europa League	FC Rubin Kazan	6	450	0	2	1498
2015/16	Uefa Europa League Qualifying	FC Rubin Kazan	4	360	0	0	1349
2014/15	Russian Cup	FC Rubin Kazan	3	258	0	0	—
2013/14	Russian Cup	Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва	1	120	0	0	—
2012/13	Russian Cup	Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва	1	90	0	0	—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)	Age	Value then	~2y later	Outcome
Jasmin Kurtic Super League 1 · 2022	33	€2.0M	€800k	fell
Christian Noboa Premier Liga · 2021	36	€1.0M	€1.2M	rose
Matias Iglesias Super League 1 · 2018	33	€450k	€150k	fell
Scott Arfield Scottish Premiership · 2019	31	€2.5M	€2.0M	fell
Niki Zimling Superliga · 2018	33	€300k	€300k	flat
Fredy Super Lig · 2022	32	€1.5M	€500k	fell
Jakob Poulsen Superliga · 2015	32	€600k	€400k	fell
Benjamin Stambouli Super Lig · 2023	33	€1.2M	€400k	fell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

Date	From	To	Fee	MV at time
7 Aug 2023	Karagümrük	PAOK	€450k	€2.2M
28 Jul 2022	Zenit S-Pb	Karagümrük	Free / loan	€2.5M
15 Feb 2018	Rubin Kazan	Zenit S-Pb	€3.3M	€3.0M
30 Jun 2017	Terek Grozny	Rubin Kazan	Free / loan	€2.5M
13 Feb 2017	Rubin Kazan	Terek Grozny	Free / loan	€3.0M
1 Jul 2015	Loko Moskau	Rubin Kazan	Unknown	€5.0M
30 Jun 2015	Rubin Kazan	Loko Moskau	Free / loan	€5.0M
14 Jul 2014	Loko Moskau	Rubin Kazan	Free / loan	€1.8M
1 Jan 2011	Loko Moscow II	Loko Moskau	Unknown	€100k
4 Feb 2010	Dynamo Kyiv II	Loko Moscow II	€100k	Data unavailable
1 Jan 2009	Terek II	Dynamo Kyiv II	Unknown	Data unavailable
1 Jan 2008	Ongusht U19	Terek II	Unknown	Data unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.