Haris Belkebla
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Haris Belkebla's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.33x the positional average in the league (2880 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -65% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2880 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1306
- Opponent strength
- 1471
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €468k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; role change DM -> CM; relative output down 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -54% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1471 | 1306 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | DM | 22 | 1795 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1449 | 1291 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 38 | 2658 | 78% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 1462 | 1399 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 31 | 2312 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1422 | 1369 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 35 | 2735 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1456 | 1306 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | DM | 23 | 1816 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1445 | 1320 | 0.82 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Missiroli Serie A · 2019 | 33 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Karl Henry Premier League · 2015 | 33 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Gelson Fernandes Ligue 1 · 2015 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Romain Amalfitano Ligue 1 · 2019 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Ivan Radovanovic Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Simone Padoin Serie A · 2018 | 34 | €500k | €325k | fell |
| Adrien Tamèze Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Abdullah Durak Super Lig · 2014 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2024 | Ohod Club | Angers SCO | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 12 Sept 2023 | Stade Brestois | Ohod Club | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Tours FC | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €800k |
| 10 Jul 2014 | Valenciennes B | Tours FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Aubervilliers | Valenciennes B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.