Renato Nhaga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Renato Nhaga's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.0M-10.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-14.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (1271 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €7.0M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 16% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1271 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1247
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 16%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €14.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR -2% to +238%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1271 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | CM | 18 | 1171 | 38% | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 1320 | 1225 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CM | 3 | 100 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 0.90 | 0.14 | 1206 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | CM | 3 | 98 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1487 | 1276 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Sá Liga Portugal · 2024 | 20 | €8.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Tomas Suslov Eredivisie · 2021 | 19 | €1.6M | €2.0M | rose |
| Paxten Aaronson Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €4.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Mandela Keita Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 20 | €2.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Adil Aouchiche Ligue 1 · 2021 | 19 | €10.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Tiago Dantas Liga Portugal · 2022 | 22 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Dário Essugo Liga Portugal · 2024 | 19 | €3.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Xadas Liga Portugal · 2020 | 23 | €2.8M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | Casa Pia | Galatasaray | €6.5M | €1.0M |
| 2 Jul 2025 | Casa Pia U19 | Casa Pia | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Casa Pia U17 | Casa Pia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.