Gustavo Sá
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gustavo Sá's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-11.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.2M-32.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.3M-40.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (2711 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €23.7M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2711 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.3M – €40.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+73 Elo); relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +39% (IQR +10% to +57%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | AM | 32 | 2711 | 89% | 4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 1320 | 1406 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | AM | 33 | 2543 | 83% | 4 | 8 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 1348 | 1333 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | AM | 28 | 1863 | 61% | 3 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 1395 | 1321 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | AM | 15 | 378 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1429 | 1362 | 0.68 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusuf Yazıcı Super Lig · 2019 | 22 | €13.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Boubacar Kamara Ligue 1 · 2021 | 22 | €37.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 22 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Bilal El Khannouss Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 20 | €30.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Ryan Flamingo Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €7.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Kenneth Taylor Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Ivan Oblyakov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Rolando Mandragora Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Famalicão U19 | Famalicão | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Famalicão S17 | Famalicão U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Famalicão S15 | Famalicão S17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Porto U15 | Famalicão S15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Porto Youth | FC Porto U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.