Sergi Darder
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sergi Darder's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-3.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.16x the positional average in the league (2689 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2689 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €679k – €2.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -64% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | CM | 38 | 2689 | 79% | 1 | 5 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 1496 | 1421 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | CM | 38 | 2763 | 81% | 2 | 6 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 1510 | 1415 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2155 | 63% | 2 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 1472 | 1436 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 38 | 3326 | 97% | 6 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 1517 | 1382 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 36 | 3115 | 91% | 3 | 10 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 1541 | 1416 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2660 | 78% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 1539 | 1432 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2718 | 79% | 4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 1547 | 1559 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 35 | 2745 | 80% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1555 | 1523 | 1.11 |
| 2017/18 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 3 | 211 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1437 | 1645 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 23 | 1367 | 40% | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 1428 | 1604 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 26 | 1482 | 43% | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 1450 | 1533 | 0.78 |
| 2015/16 | Málaga CF | Laliga | CM | 1 | 85 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1766 | 1536 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Málaga CF | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2769 | 81% | 4 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 1583 | 1497 | 1.18 |
| 2013/14 | Málaga CF | Laliga | CM | 29 | 2225 | 65% | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 1539 | 1540 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 2 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1819 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 5 | 366 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 123 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 234 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 5 | 327 | 0 | 2 | 1377 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1652 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 6 | 407 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 5 | 145 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 395 | 0 | 0 | 1607 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 2 | 174 | 1 | 1 | 1451 |
| 2016/17 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1748 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 4 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Málaga CF | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Copa Del Rey | Málaga CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darko Lazović Serie A · 2022 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Julien Féret Ligue 1 · 2013 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Florian Kainz Bundesliga · 2024 | 32 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Alejandro Domínguez Laliga · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Jaime Valdés Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Alexandru Gatcan Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Mariano Izco Serie A · 2014 | 31 | €2.6M | €2.0M | fell |
| Piti Laliga · 2013 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2023 | Espanyol | RCD Mallorca | €8.0M | €16.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Lyon | Espanyol | €8.0M | €11.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Espanyol | Lyon | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Lyon | Espanyol | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 29 Aug 2015 | Málaga CF | Lyon | €13.1M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Atl. Malagueño | Málaga CF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jul 2012 | RCD Espanyol B | Atl. Malagueño | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Espanyol U19 | RCD Espanyol B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Espanyol Youth | Espanyol U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.