Matías Vecino
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matías Vecino's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (733 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 71.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €353k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 733 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1437
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €417k – €990k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-89 Elo); relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -70% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 733 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CM | 13 | 599 | 18% | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 1437 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 6 | 134 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1377 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CM | 20 | 868 | 25% | 2 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.28 | 1494 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CM | 31 | 1136 | 33% | 6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 1472 | 1580 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CM | 32 | 1684 | 49% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1465 | 1578 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 17 | 364 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 1429 | 1731 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 8 | 280 | 8% | 1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.16 | 1450 | 1748 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 20 | 1281 | 37% | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 1442 | 1657 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 30 | 2015 | 59% | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 1463 | 1565 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 29 | 2136 | 62% | 3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 1479 | 1565 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CM | 31 | 2322 | 68% | 3 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 1472 | 1523 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CM | 30 | 2399 | 70% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1479 | 1563 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | FC Empoli | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2996 | 88% | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 1482 | 1413 | 0.93 |
| 2013/14 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 9 | 682 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 1436 | 1378 | 0.88 |
| 2013/14 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CM | 6 | 143 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.23 | 1546 | 1570 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 6 | 358 | 0 | 0 | 1542 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 9 | 612 | 0 | 2 | 1554 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 6 | 473 | 1 | 0 | 1668 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 3 | 209 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1802 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 6 | 240 | 2 | 1 | 1456 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 4 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 3 | 238 | 1 | 0 | 1694 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1481 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 5 | 450 | 1 | 1 | 1783 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Inter Milan | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | 1562 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | ACF Fiorentina | 7 | 516 | 1 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | ACF Fiorentina | 7 | 435 | 0 | 2 | 1521 |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2013/14 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja García Laliga · 2023 | 33 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Ander Herrera Laliga · 2023 | 34 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Filipe Anunciação Liga Portugal · 2013 | 34 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Sebastian Rudy Bundesliga · 2023 | 33 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Camel Meriem Ligue 1 · 2013 | 34 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Alessandro Diamanti Serie A · 2016 | 33 | €1.5M | €250k | fell |
| Mathieu Bodmer Ligue 1 · 2017 | 35 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Riccardo Montolivo Serie A · 2018 | 33 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Lazio | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Inter | Lazio | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 2 Aug 2017 | Fiorentina | Inter | €24.0M | €13.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | FC Empoli | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €3.2M |
| 13 Aug 2014 | Fiorentina | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Cagliari | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 29 Jan 2014 | Fiorentina | Cagliari | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 19 Jan 2013 | Nacional | Fiorentina | €2.3M | €500k |
| 12 Aug 2011 | Central Español | Nacional | €327k | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Central U19 | Central Español | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.