Yvon Mvogo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yvon Mvogo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2790 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1468
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €634k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -68% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1468 | 1420 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1483 | 1335 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | GK | 21 | 1813 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1439 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | GK | 8 | 720 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1316 | 1641 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1346 | 1567 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1365 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 2 | 135 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1481 | 1650 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1473 | 1570 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1520 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1410 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1551 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RB Leipzig | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1366 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Serie A · 2014 | 32 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Régis Gurtner Ligue 1 · 2018 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ciprian Tatarusanu Ligue 1 · 2018 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Nicolas Penneteau Ligue 1 · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Charles Itandje Super Lig · 2014 | 32 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Marco Bizot Ligue 1 · 2023 | 32 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Eduardo Super Lig · 2013 | 31 | €3.7M | €2.5M | fell |
| Antonio Mirante Serie A · 2016 | 33 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2022 | Leipzig | FC Lorient | Unknown | €2.8M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | PSV | Leipzig | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 25 Aug 2020 | Leipzig | PSV | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Young Boys | Leipzig | €5.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | BSC YB U18 | Young Boys | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Fribourg Youth | BSC YB U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.