Marco Bizot
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marco Bizot's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-4.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 88.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €802k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 585 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1637
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €558k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 77 pts; changed club; team strength up (+249 Elo); league level up (+149 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -68% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 585 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | GK | 7 | 585 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1637 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1445 | 1472 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | GK | 32 | 2877 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1479 | 1504 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1450 | 1399 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1428 | 1369 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | GK | 33 | 2965 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1354 | 1557 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | GK | 24 | 2075 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1353 | 1542 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1348 | 1459 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1314 | 1489 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 22 | 1901 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1338 | 1500 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 15 | 1265 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1329 | 1400 | 0.57 |
| 2014/15 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 5 | 405 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1273 | 1374 | 0.54 |
| 2013/14 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1342 | 1365 | 0.59 |
| 2012/13 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | GK | 16 | 1428 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1351 | 1282 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1519 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1650 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1552 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | 1360 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1425 |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | 1380 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1533 |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Cech Premier League · 2019 | 37 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Javi Varas Laliga · 2014 | 32 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Beto Laliga · 2015 | 33 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Tomáš Vaclík Laliga · 2021 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Sergio Asenjo Laliga · 2022 | 33 | €4.0M | €700k | fell |
| Péter Gulácsi Bundesliga · 2023 | 33 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gorka Iraizoz Laliga · 2017 | 36 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Andrés Fernández Laliga · 2017 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2025 | Stade Brestois | Aston Villa | €500k | €3.0M |
| 4 Aug 2021 | AZ Alkmaar | Stade Brestois | €1.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Genk | AZ Alkmaar | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Groningen | Genk | €1.5M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Ajax U21 | FC Groningen | €125k | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2012 | SC Cambuur | Ajax U21 | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Ajax U21 | SC Cambuur | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.