Serge Gnabry

31 yrs · Second striker (also LW, RW) · Germany
Bayern Munich · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 176 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
1/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€18.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€9.7M – €19.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€16.6M – €34.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.7M – €11.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.4M – €24.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€9.7M – €19.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€16.6M – €34.0M
Projected value (24 months)€4.7M – €11.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€18.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Serge Gnabry's performance-implied value at EUR 16.6M-34.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.7M-19.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.7M-11.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (1228 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 1

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite95th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €13.6M vs market €18.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-63% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €90.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1228 (40% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
1.03
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.42
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
95 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1871
Opponent strength
1470
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.7M – €11.1M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+99 Elo); role change LW -> SS.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -68% to -44%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1228 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bayern MunichBundesligaSS21122840%861.030.42147018710.94
2024/25Bayern MunichBundesligaLW27123640%750.870.39148017720.94
2023/24Bayern MunichBundesligaLW1043314%321.040.29148217151.01
2022/23Bayern MunichBundesligaRW34194163%1460.930.32149418171.04
2021/22Bayern MunichBundesligaRW34218972%1460.820.27149218471.05
2020/21Bayern MunichBundesligaLW27165554%1050.820.26149418981.06
2019/20Bayern MunichBundesligaRW31220372%12110.940.37151318921.06
2018/19Bayern MunichBundesligaRW30177358%1060.810.31149618391.05
2017/18TSG 1899 HoffenheimBundesligaSS22151950%1071.010.71150315791.04
2016/17SV Werder BremenBundesligaLW27197164%1120.590.59152415161.06
2015/16West Bromwich AlbionPremier LeagueRW1120%000.000.72172114471.08
2013/14Arsenal FCPremier LeagueRW946414%110.390.26147217041.12
2012/13Arsenal FCPremier LeagueSS170%000.000.28138016831.07

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich11562241728
2025/26Dfb PokalBayern Munich417100—
2025/26Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich180011531
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich12548021633
2024/25Dfb PokalBayern Munich318401—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich7200201733
2023/24Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190001685
2023/24Dfb PokalBayern Munich24100—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich8337231706
2022/23Dfb PokalBayern Munich421702—
2022/23Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich178111663
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich8390311645
2021/22Dfb PokalBayern Munich29602—
2021/22Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich173011713
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich6361011590
2020/21Uefa Super CupBayern Munich1120001722
2020/21Dfb PokalBayern Munich19010—
2020/21Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich136001687
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich10766921679
2019/20Dfb PokalBayern Munich537721—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich7447011674
2018/19Dfb PokalBayern Munich532430—
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingTSG 1899 Hoffenheim2126001668
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueTSG 1899 Hoffenheim145001456
2017/18Dfb PokalTSG 1899 Hoffenheim13400—
2013/14Fa CupArsenal FC218001—
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueArsenal FC214001964
2012/13Uefa Champions LeagueArsenal FC17001558

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
David Villa
Laliga · 2013
32€12.0M€7.0Mfell
Juan Cuadrado
Serie A · 2018
30€28.0M€14.5Mfell
Arjen Robben
Bundesliga · 2014
30€25.0M€20.0Mfell
Diego Costa
Laliga · 2020
32€14.5M€4.0Mfell
Franck Ribéry
Bundesliga · 2016
33€10.0M€4.0Mfell
Kévin Gameiro
Laliga · 2018
31€20.0M€6.5Mfell
Diego Perotti
Serie A · 2018
30€20.0M€6.5Mfell
Romelu Lukaku
Serie A · 2023
30€40.0M€22.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2018HoffenheimBayern MunichFree / loan€20.0M
14 Jul 2017Bayern MunichHoffenheimFree / loan€15.0M
1 Jul 2017Werder BremenBayern Munich€8.0M€15.0M
31 Aug 2016ArsenalWerder Bremen€5.0M€2.5M
1 Feb 2016West BromArsenalFree / loan€3.5M
7 Aug 2015ArsenalWest BromFree / loan€3.5M
1 Jul 2013Arsenal U18ArsenalUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Stuttgart U17Arsenal U18€100kData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Stuttgart Yth.Stuttgart U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006S. Kickers Yth.Stuttgart Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2005Feuerbach Jug.S. Kickers Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2003Ditzingen Yth.Feuerbach Jug.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2001GSV Hemm. Jgd.Ditzingen Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2000Weissach Yth.GSV Hemm. Jgd.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.