
Matteo Bianchetti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matteo Bianchetti's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 49.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €328k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2197 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1299
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €240k – €729k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -71% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Cremonese | Serie A | CB | 27 | 2197 | 64% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1490 | 1299 | 0.93 |
| 2022/23 | US Cremonese | Serie A | CB | 25 | 2131 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 1491 | 1269 | 0.94 |
| 2017/18 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 2 | 123 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1398 | 1221 | 0.86 |
| 2015/16 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 23 | 1581 | 46% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1522 | 1353 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | FC Empoli | Serie A | CB | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1514 | 1413 | 0.93 |
| 2013/14 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 3 | 210 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1514 | 1431 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Cremonese | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Cremonese | 4 | 283 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 2 | 142 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Bram Nuytinck Serie A · 2023 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Fabio Pisacane Serie A · 2019 | 33 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Jordan Lotiès Ligue 1 · 2017 | 33 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Jérémie Bréchet Ligue 1 · 2013 | 34 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Franck Signorino Ligue 1 · 2015 | 34 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Marco Calderoni Serie A · 2020 | 31 | €800k | €200k | fell |
| Fouad Chafik Ligue 1 · 2020 | 34 | €650k | €800k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2019 | Hellas Verona | Cremonese | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Spezia Calcio | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 29 Jan 2015 | Hellas Verona | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 28 Jan 2015 | FC Empoli | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 8 Aug 2014 | Hellas Verona | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Spezia Calcio | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 7 Jan 2014 | Hellas Verona | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Inter | Hellas Verona | €1.6M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Hellas Verona | Inter | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 23 Jan 2013 | Inter | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Inter U19 | Inter | Unknown | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Varese U19 | Inter U19 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Aug 2010 | Inter U19 | Varese U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Corsico | Inter U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.