Matteo Bianchetti

33 yrs · Centre-back · Italy
US Cremonese · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 189 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€246k – €667k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€309k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€240k – €729k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€358k – €1.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€246k – €667k
Model value (performance-implied)€309k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€240k – €729k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Matteo Bianchetti's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage49.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €328k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.4M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2197 (64% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
50 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1299
Opponent strength
1490
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€240k – €729k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -71% to -45%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26US CremoneseSerie ACB27219764%020.080.12149012990.93
2022/23US CremoneseSerie ACB25213162%100.040.09149112690.94
2017/18Hellas VeronaSerie ACB21234%000.000.09139812210.86
2015/16Hellas VeronaSerie ACB23158146%100.060.10152213530.95
2014/15FC EmpoliSerie ACB150%000.000.10151414130.93
2013/14Hellas VeronaSerie ACB32106%000.000.07151414310.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupUS Cremonese19000—
2022/23Italy CupUS Cremonese428300—
2015/16Italy CupHellas Verona218000—
2014/15Italy CupFC Empoli214200—
2013/14Italy CupSpezia Calcio19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Angelo
Serie A · 2013
32€500k€100kfell
Bram Nuytinck
Serie A · 2023
33€1.0M€300kfell
Fabio Pisacane
Serie A · 2019
33€700k€500kfell
Jordan Lotiès
Ligue 1 · 2017
33€500k€150kfell
Jérémie Bréchet
Ligue 1 · 2013
34€500k€250kfell
Franck Signorino
Ligue 1 · 2015
34€500k€250kfell
Marco Calderoni
Serie A · 2020
31€800k€200kfell
Fouad Chafik
Ligue 1 · 2020
34€650k€800krose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
17 Aug 2019Hellas VeronaCremoneseFree / loan€800k
30 Jun 2015Spezia CalcioHellas VeronaFree / loan€1.4M
29 Jan 2015Hellas VeronaSpezia CalcioFree / loan€1.2M
28 Jan 2015FC EmpoliHellas VeronaFree / loan€1.2M
8 Aug 2014Hellas VeronaFC EmpoliFree / loan€1.4M
30 Jun 2014Spezia CalcioHellas VeronaFree / loan€1.0M
7 Jan 2014Hellas VeronaSpezia CalcioFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2013InterHellas Verona€1.6M€1.0M
30 Jun 2013Hellas VeronaInterFree / loan€1.0M
23 Jan 2013InterHellas VeronaFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2012Inter U19InterUnknown€250k
30 Jun 2011Varese U19Inter U19Free / loan€300k
1 Aug 2010Inter U19Varese U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2007CorsicoInter U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.