Joshua Kimmich

31 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CB, CM, RB) · Germany
Bayern Munich · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 177 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
0/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€35.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€19.8M – €39.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€21.1M – €57.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€8.6M – €19.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€18.4M – €37.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€19.8M – €39.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€21.1M – €57.2M
Projected value (24 months)€8.6M – €19.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€35.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Joshua Kimmich's performance-implied value at EUR 21.1M-57.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.8M-39.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.6M-19.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (2282 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 0

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite99.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €27.5M vs market €35.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-66% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €90.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2282 (75% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.39
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
100 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1871
Opponent strength
1473
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€8.6M – €19.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; team strength up (+99 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -65% to -43%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bayern MunichBundesligaDM29228275%280.390.14147318710.94
2024/25Bayern MunichBundesligaDM33284793%370.320.16148417720.94
2023/24Bayern MunichBundesligaDM28219272%170.330.14149117151.01
2022/23Bayern MunichBundesligaDM33281492%560.350.13151218171.04
2021/22Bayern MunichBundesligaDM28247881%3120.540.16149618471.05
2020/21Bayern MunichBundesligaDM27219672%4100.570.17151218981.06
2019/20Bayern MunichBundesligaDM33282192%490.410.18151718921.06
2018/19Bayern MunichBundesligaRB343060100%2140.470.15149618391.05
2017/18Bayern MunichBundesligaRB29233376%1120.500.18149618631.04
2016/17Bayern MunichBundesligaCM27154250%610.410.15149618551.06
2015/16Bayern MunichBundesligaCB23142347%020.130.05150918531.02

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich131161021716
2025/26Dfb PokalBayern Munich545003—
2025/26World CupGermany323302—
2025/26Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190001531
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich141260051647
2024/25Dfb PokalBayern Munich327000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich121080121663
2023/24Dfb PokalBayern Munich215301—
2023/24Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich178001685
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich9810131737
2022/23Dfb PokalBayern Munich433812—
2022/23Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190001663
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich8702001661
2021/22Dfb PokalBayern Munich213500—
2021/22Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190001713
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich7617141654
2020/21Dfb PokalBayern Munich112000—
2020/21Uefa Super CupBayern Munich1120001722
2020/21Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190101687
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich11903241667
2019/20Dfb PokalBayern Munich654014—
2019/20Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190001683
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich7630021639
2018/19Dfb PokalBayern Munich650102—
2018/19Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190011479
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich11897431693
2017/18Dfb PokalBayern Munich657011—
2017/18Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190011705
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich8320301668
2016/17Dfb PokalBayern Munich421101—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Casemiro
Laliga · 2022
30€40.0M€20.0Mfell
Radja Nainggolan
Serie A · 2018
30€45.0M€16.0Mfell
Ivan Rakitic
Laliga · 2017
29€45.0M€40.0Mflat
Bastian Schweinsteiger
Bundesliga · 2013
29€40.0M€22.0Mfell
Marcelo Brozović
Serie A · 2021
29€40.0M€25.0Mfell
Sami Khedira
Serie A · 2018
31€26.0M€5.5Mfell
Sergio Busquets
Laliga · 2018
30€80.0M€28.0Mfell
Yaya Touré
Premier League · 2015
32€22.0M€8.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Jul 2015StuttgartBayern Munich€9.5M€5.0M
1 Jul 2015LeipzigStuttgart€1.5M€5.0M
5 Jul 2013Stuttgart U19Leipzig€500kData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Stuttgart U17Stuttgart U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Stuttgart Yth.Stuttgart U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Bösingen Yth.Stuttgart Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Joshua Kimmich · MoneyballAI