Casemiro

34 yrs · Defensive midfielder · Brazil
Manchester United · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.1M – €7.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.9M – €10.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.9M – €3.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4.8M – €8.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.1M – €7.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.9M – €10.4M
Projected value (24 months)€1.9M – €3.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Casemiro's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-10.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-7.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-3.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.80x the positional average in the league (2589 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceElite97.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €4.7M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-68% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €80.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2589 (76% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.38
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.22
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
97 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1715
Opponent strength
1587
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.9M – €3.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts; team strength up (+112 Elo); relative output up 171% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -69% to -46%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueDM34258976%920.380.22158717151.30
2024/25Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueDM24149844%100.060.09158616031.23
2023/24Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueDM25198558%120.140.11158415941.14
2022/23Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueDM28212762%430.300.18154916991.23
2022/23Real MadridLaligaDM170%000.000.05132217370.98
2021/22Real MadridLaligaDM32257675%140.170.11152518121.05
2020/21Real MadridLaligaDM34290385%640.310.23154917881.10
2019/20Real MadridLaligaDM35309190%430.200.14153118121.16
2018/19Real MadridLaligaDM29231768%310.160.11156216761.14
2017/18Real MadridLaligaDM30260076%530.280.13152218741.11
2016/17Real MadridLaligaDM25170750%400.210.08155019221.11
2015/16Real MadridLaligaDM23152445%130.240.10158718901.17
2013/14Real MadridLaligaDM122748%010.330.09147818591.19
2012/13Real MadridLaligaDM1903%000.000.09154117731.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupBrazil320000—
2025/26Fa CupManchester United11100—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United13978231585
2024/25Community ShieldManchester United190001893
2024/25Fa CupManchester United25300—
2023/24Fa CupManchester United329110—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United2167201686
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United12991011578
2022/23Fa CupManchester United539920—
2022/23Uefa Super CupReal Madrid190011595
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid11914001705
2021/22Copa Del ReyReal Madrid322800—
2021/22SupercopaReal Madrid2210001633
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid10828111680
2020/21Copa Del ReyReal Madrid112000—
2020/21SupercopaReal Madrid190011530
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid8690111684
2019/20SupercopaReal Madrid2210001703
2019/20Copa Del ReyReal Madrid19001—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid6505101616
2018/19Copa Del ReyReal Madrid534100—
2018/19Uefa Super CupReal Madrid176001768
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid12944101750
2017/18SupercopaReal Madrid2118001857
2017/18Uefa Super CupReal Madrid190101712
2017/18Copa Del ReyReal Madrid11300—
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid9827221786
2016/17Copa Del ReyReal Madrid544902—
2016/17Uefa Super CupReal Madrid1120001643
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid11925001662

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Fernando
Laliga · 2020
33€8.0M€4.0Mfell
Frank Lampard
Premier League · 2013
35€4.0M€1.0Mfell
James Milner
Premier League · 2016
30€15.0M€15.0Mflat
Ivan Rakitic
Laliga · 2022
34€7.0M€3.5Mfell
Gareth Barry
Premier League · 2014
33€5.0M€2.5Mfell
Bruno Soriano
Laliga · 2016
32€8.0M€1.0Mfell
Jermaine Jones
Bundesliga · 2013
32€3.8M€2.5Mfell
Vicente Iborra
Laliga · 2019
31€9.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Man UtdWithout ClubUnknown€6.0M
22 Aug 2022Real MadridMan Utd€70.7M€40.0M
2 Jul 2015PortoReal Madrid€15.0M€10.0M
1 Jul 2015Real MadridPorto€7.5M€10.0M
30 Jun 2015PortoReal MadridFree / loan€7.0M
19 Jul 2014Real MadridPortoFree / loan€6.0M
1 Jul 2013São PauloReal Madrid€6.0M€6.0M
30 Jun 2013RM CastillaSão PauloFree / loan€6.0M
31 Jan 2013São PauloRM CastillaFree / loan€4.5M
1 Jul 2010São Paulo U20São PauloUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Casemiro · MoneyballAI