Berat Djimsiti

33 yrs · Centre-back · Albania
Atalanta BC · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€4.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.3M – €3.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.9M – €13.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€995k – €2.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€706k – €11.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.3M – €3.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.9M – €13.0M
Projected value (24 months)€995k – €2.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Berat Djimsiti's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-13.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceElite94.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.8M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-61% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €22.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2526 (74% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.02
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
95 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1588
Opponent strength
1493
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€995k – €2.3M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-91 Elo); relative output down 78% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -69% (IQR -81% to -60%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Atalanta BCSerie ACB34252674%000.000.02149315880.93
2024/25Atalanta BCSerie ACB34264877%120.100.07150516790.99
2023/24Atalanta BCSerie ACB37283183%010.030.03148317090.98
2022/23Atalanta BCSerie ACB24179853%010.050.05148115560.94
2021/22Atalanta BCSerie ACB31225766%110.080.06145515660.89
2020/21Atalanta BCSerie ACB33262877%030.100.06146116730.90
2019/20Atalanta BCSerie ACB34279082%210.100.06143016660.82
2018/19Atalanta BCSerie ACB24180353%110.100.09150015700.78
2017/18Benevento CalcioSerie ACB30270079%010.030.08147412410.86
2015/16Atalanta BCSerie ACB32708%000.000.07150914110.95

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC10702001640
2025/26Italy CupAtalanta BC327010—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC9679101653
2024/25Italy CupAtalanta BC215400—
2024/25Uefa Super CupAtalanta BC190001881
2024/25Supercoppa ItalianaAtalanta BC128001833
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAtalanta BC121044101632
2023/24Italy CupAtalanta BC545000—
2022/23Italy CupAtalanta BC218000—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueAtalanta BC4329201579
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC5260001633
2021/22Italy CupAtalanta BC19000—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC8720001697
2020/21Italy CupAtalanta BC537310—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueAtalanta BC6510001743
2019/20Italy CupAtalanta BC19000—
2018/19Italy CupAtalanta BC436000—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingAtalanta BC190001342
2015/16Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Zürich2210001439

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Miranda
Serie A · 2018
34€8.0M€600kfell
Marc Planus
Ligue 1 · 2013
31€2.5M€500kfell
Axel Witsel
Laliga · 2023
34€5.0M€2.0Mfell
Milan Bisevac
Ligue 1 · 2013
30€6.0M€2.5Mfell
Bruno Alves
Super Lig · 2015
34€3.0M€800kfell
Germán Pezzella
Laliga · 2023
32€5.0M€1.8Mfell
Danilo Pereira
Ligue 1 · 2024
33€8.0M€3.5Mfell
Stefan Savic
Laliga · 2023
32€6.0M€900kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2018BeneventoAtalantaFree / loan€1.0M
13 Jul 2017AtalantaBeneventoFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2017AvellinoAtalantaFree / loan€700k
31 Aug 2016AtalantaAvellinoFree / loan€800k
18 Jan 2016FC ZürichAtalantaFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2012FC Zürich U21FC ZürichUnknown€250k
1 Jul 2011FC Zürich U18FC Zürich U21Unknown€50k
1 Jul 2010FC Zürich U17FC Zürich U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009FC Zürich U16FC Zürich U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Berat Djimsiti · MoneyballAI