Matteo Politano

33 yrs · Right winger (also LW, RM, SS) · Italy
SSC Napoli · Serie A · Foot: left · Height: 171 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
2/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.0M – €5.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.3M – €8.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.5M – €2.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€847k – €6.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.0M – €5.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.3M – €8.2M
Projected value (24 months)€1.5M – €2.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Matteo Politano's performance-implied value at EUR 4.3M-8.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (2214 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 2

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh89.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.9 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €3.4M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-65% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €30.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2214 (65% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.28
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.22
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
90 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1618
Opponent strength
1481
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.5M – €2.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; role change RW -> RM; relative output up 72% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -68% to -46%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SSC NapoliSerie ARM34221465%250.280.22148116180.93
2024/25SSC NapoliSerie ARW37283283%350.250.25149216600.99
2023/24SSC NapoliSerie ARW37238570%880.600.38148215690.98
2022/23SSC NapoliSerie ARW27116534%330.460.26144917390.94
2021/22SSC NapoliSerie ARW33165548%340.380.24144816450.89
2020/21SSC NapoliSerie ARW37191156%950.660.40147316430.90
2019/20SSC NapoliSerie ARW1574622%220.480.30139715880.82
2019/20Inter MilanSerie ASS112537%000.000.29141516570.82
2018/19Inter MilanSerie ARW36256475%550.350.35144915650.78
2017/18US SassuoloSerie ALW36283083%1040.450.60147313770.86
2016/17US SassuoloSerie ALW32231868%560.430.38148114350.88
2015/16US SassuoloSerie ARW28103930%520.610.61149915140.95

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli6333001618
2025/26Supercoppa ItalianaSSC Napoli2168011633
2025/26Italy CupSSC Napoli212000—
2024/25Italy CupSSC Napoli210400—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli8582121623
2023/24Supercoppa ItalianaSSC Napoli2142001693
2023/24Italy CupSSC Napoli11700—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli9407111681
2022/23Italy CupSSC Napoli15500—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueSSC Napoli5188231509
2021/22Italy CupSSC Napoli16400—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueSSC Napoli7410201537
2020/21Italy CupSSC Napoli426010—
2020/21Supercoppa ItalianaSSC Napoli16001687
2019/20Italy CupSSC Napoli310100—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan462001703
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli236001806
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan6454011749
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueInter Milan4272101583
2018/19Italy CupInter Milan215100—
2017/18Italy CupUS Sassuolo318010—
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueUS Sassuolo5305211493
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingUS Sassuolo4181111380
2016/17Italy CupUS Sassuolo17600—
2015/16Italy CupUS Sassuolo13300—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Daniele De Rossi
Serie A · 2015
32€7.5M€5.0Mfell
Marco Parolo
Serie A · 2018
33€5.0M€1.6Mfell
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Serie A · 2022
33€8.0M€6.0Mfell
Senad Lulic
Serie A · 2018
32€6.5M€2.8Mfell
Roman Shirokov
Premier Liga · 2013
32€5.0M€2.5Mfell
Albert Riera
Super Lig · 2013
31€5.0M€500kfell
Marten de Roon
Serie A · 2024
33€7.0M€3.2Mfell
Ashley Young
Serie A · 2020
35€3.2M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2021InterNapoli€22.1M€30.0M
30 Jun 2021NapoliInterFree / loan€30.0M
28 Jan 2020InterNapoliFree / loan€28.0M
1 Jul 2019SassuoloInter€21.1M€30.0M
30 Jun 2019InterSassuoloFree / loan€30.0M
1 Jul 2018SassuoloInterFree / loan€22.0M
1 Jul 2016RomaSassuolo€8.1M€2.5M
30 Jun 2016SassuoloRomaFree / loan€2.5M
2 Jul 2015RomaSassuoloFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jul 2015PescaraRoma€600k€2.0M
1 Jul 2013RomaPescara€500k€750k
30 Jun 2013PerugiaRomaFree / loan€750k
17 Jul 2012Roma U19PerugiaFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2010Roma U17Roma U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008AS Rom YouthRoma U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.