Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Henrikh Mkhitaryan's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-7.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-2.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (1556 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 96.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 37.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1556 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1722
- Opponent strength
- 1460
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €2.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; team strength down (-96 Elo); relative output up 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -61% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1556 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 30 | 1556 | 45% | 4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.16 | 1460 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 32 | 2412 | 71% | 1 | 5 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 1498 | 1819 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2804 | 82% | 2 | 10 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 1485 | 1802 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 31 | 2000 | 58% | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 1435 | 1738 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 31 | 2502 | 73% | 5 | 6 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 1483 | 1589 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 34 | 2747 | 80% | 13 | 11 | 0.79 | 0.53 | 1461 | 1591 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 22 | 1533 | 45% | 9 | 5 | 0.82 | 0.44 | 1421 | 1582 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 3 | 111 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1583 | 1641 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RW | 25 | 1644 | 48% | 6 | 4 | 0.55 | 0.37 | 1538 | 1733 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Manchester United | Premier League | AM | 15 | 932 | 27% | 1 | 5 | 0.58 | 0.33 | 1528 | 1747 | 1.15 |
| 2017/18 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RW | 11 | 796 | 23% | 2 | 4 | 0.68 | 0.44 | 1562 | 1665 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Manchester United | Premier League | RW | 24 | 1349 | 39% | 4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 1537 | 1694 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RW | 31 | 2577 | 84% | 11 | 20 | 1.08 | 0.63 | 1523 | 1718 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RW | 28 | 1921 | 63% | 3 | 6 | 0.42 | 0.29 | 1528 | 1622 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 31 | 2453 | 80% | 9 | 10 | 0.70 | 0.33 | 1549 | 1751 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | CM | 29 | 2506 | 93% | 25 | 9 | 1.22 | 0.59 | 1392 | 1682 | 0.70 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | 1609 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 3 | 106 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 13 | 856 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 121 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 7 | 521 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1618 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 13 | 910 | 2 | 0 | 1705 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 337 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 154 | 0 | 1 | 1385 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 135 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 11 | 597 | 1 | 2 | 1641 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 85 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 5 | 299 | 0 | 1 | 1543 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 11 | 670 | 0 | 3 | 1538 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 416 | 1 | 2 | 1573 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 4 | 285 | 1 | 1 | 1573 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Super Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1940 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 11 | 817 | 6 | 0 | 1556 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 3 | 217 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Community Shield | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 11 | 902 | 2 | 6 | 1567 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 570 | 5 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 334 | 5 | 4 | 1438 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 604 | 0 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 468 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Alves Ligue 1 · 2019 | 36 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Daniele De Rossi Serie A · 2018 | 35 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ashley Young Serie A · 2021 | 36 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Luka Modrić Laliga · 2023 | 38 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Fernando Laliga · 2022 | 35 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Thiago Motta Ligue 1 · 2018 | 36 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Michael Carrick Premier League · 2015 | 34 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ivan Rakitic Laliga · 2023 | 35 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Roma | Inter | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Arsenal | Roma | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Roma | Arsenal | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Arsenal | Roma | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 22 Jan 2018 | Man Utd | Arsenal | €34.0M | €35.0M |
| 6 Jul 2016 | Dortmund | Man Utd | €42.0M | €30.0M |
| 9 Jul 2013 | Shakhtar D. | Dortmund | €27.5M | €22.0M |
| 30 Aug 2010 | Metalurg D. | Shakhtar D. | €5.8M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Pyunik Yerevan | Metalurg D. | €350k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Pyunik II | Pyunik Yerevan | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | FC Pyunik U18 | Pyunik II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2003 | São Paulo U17 | FC Pyunik U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Mar 2003 | FC Pyunik U18 | São Paulo U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.