Stefano Sabelli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Stefano Sabelli's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (919 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 54.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €830k vs market €1.3M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -62% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 919 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1481
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €312k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; role change RB -> RM; relative output down 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -72% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 919 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | RM | 16 | 919 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1481 | 1406 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | RB | 34 | 2059 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1511 | 1444 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | RM | 32 | 2450 | 72% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 1487 | 1445 | 0.98 |
| 2019/20 | Brescia Calcio | Serie A | RB | 36 | 3169 | 93% | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1432 | 1233 | 0.82 |
| 2015/16 | AC Carpi | Serie A | RM | 7 | 558 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.46 | 1590 | 1383 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 2 | 115 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Brescia Calcio | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | AS Bari | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tolgay Arslan Serie A · 2023 | 33 | €1.4M | €750k | fell |
| Dennis Aogo Bundesliga · 2019 | 32 | €1.5M | €475k | fell |
| Mounir Obbadi Serie A · 2015 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Emil Hallfredsson Serie A · 2018 | 34 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Walid Mesloub Ligue 1 · 2017 | 32 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Markus Feulner Bundesliga · 2016 | 34 | €750k | €150k | fell |
| Sergio Almirón Serie A · 2014 | 34 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Manu García Laliga · 2021 | 35 | €800k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2022 | Brescia | Genoa | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 14 Jan 2022 | Genoa | Brescia | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 20 Jul 2021 | FC Empoli | Genoa | Free / loan | €1.9M |
| 20 Jan 2021 | Brescia | Empoli | Unknown | €1.9M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Bari | Brescia | €500k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Carpi | Bari | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 21 Jan 2016 | Bari | Carpi | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Roma | Bari | €900k | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Bari | Roma | Free / loan | €450k |
| 18 Jul 2012 | Roma U19 | Bari | Free / loan | €200k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.