Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

31 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Denmark

Olympique Marseille · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm

Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028

2/100

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Market value

€15.0M

Updated 7 days ago

Estimated acquisition

€7.8M – €16.0M

Estimated · 20–80% range

Model value

€7.4M – €17.4M

Performance-implied · estimated

Projected (24m)

€3.6M – €7.7M

Resale range · estimated

Potential value gap

-€8.6M – €9.6M

Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€7.8M – €16.0M

Model value (performance-implied)€7.4M – €17.4M

Projected value (24 months)€3.6M – €7.7M

Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Pierre-Emile Højbjerg's performance-implied value at EUR 7.4M-17.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.8M-16.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-7.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.86x the positional average in the league (2715 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 2

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Performance	Elite	94.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
Age	Unfavorable	30.9 years
Acquisition cost	Favorable	est. €10.6M vs market €15.0M
Expected appreciation	Very low	-65% over ~2 years (model)
Value gap	Small	weak predictor on its own
Development	Low
League translation	Big-five league	league coefficient 0.88
Tactical fit	Not evaluated	Requires event/role data not available from the current free source.
Risk	Low
Data confidence	Medium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €45.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes: 2715 (89% of available)
Goals + assists / 90: 0.30
Context-adjusted G+A / 90: 0.23
xG, xA, progression: Data unavailable
Defensive actions: Data unavailable
Performance percentile: 94 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength: 0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo): 1504
Opponent strength: 1456
Possession, role: Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development: Low
Trajectory: improving
Breakout probability: Age > 23
Resale range (24m): €3.6M – €7.7M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 89% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -64% to -50%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

Season	Club	League	Pos	Apps	Min	Min share	G	A	G+A/90	Adj. G+A/90	Opp. Elo	Team Elo	League str.
2025/26	Olympique Marseille	Ligue 1	DM	32	2715	89%	4	5	0.30	0.23	1456	1504	0.88
2024/25	Olympique Marseille	Ligue 1	DM	30	2666	87%	2	4	0.20	0.13	1432	1557	0.88
2023/24	Tottenham Hotspur	Premier League	DM	36	1293	38%	0	0	0.00	0.04	1596	1588	1.14
2022/23	Tottenham Hotspur	Premier League	DM	35	3133	92%	4	5	0.26	0.17	1565	1606	1.23
2021/22	Tottenham Hotspur	Premier League	DM	36	3199	94%	2	2	0.11	0.10	1565	1659	1.17
2020/21	Tottenham Hotspur	Premier League	DM	38	3420	100%	2	4	0.16	0.11	1550	1647	1.19
2019/20	Southampton FC	Premier League	CM	33	2750	80%	0	1	0.03	0.11	1594	1528	1.14
2018/19	Southampton FC	Premier League	CM	31	2764	81%	4	4	0.26	0.30	1559	1486	1.22
2017/18	Southampton FC	Premier League	DM	23	1671	49%	0	0	0.00	0.05	1600	1459	1.15
2016/17	Southampton FC	Premier League	CM	22	1299	38%	0	0	0.00	0.08	1535	1501	1.07
2015/16	FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga	CM	23	1275	42%	0	2	0.14	0.15	1575	1543	1.02
2014/15	FC Augsburg	Bundesliga	CM	16	1009	33%	2	3	0.45	0.33	1535	1493	1.03
2014/15	Bayern Munich	Bundesliga	CM	8	285	9%	0	0	0.00	0.07	1452	1793	1.03
2013/14	Bayern Munich	Bundesliga	CM	7	281	9%	0	1	0.32	0.09	1467	1854	1.03
2012/13	Bayern Munich	Bundesliga	DM	2	20	1%	0	0	0.00	0.07	1445	1894	1.11

Cups & continental competitions

Season	Competition	Club	Apps	Min	G	A	Avg opp. Elo
2025/26	Uefa Champions League	Olympique Marseille	8	658	0	0	1642
2025/26	Trophee Des Champions	Olympique Marseille	1	90	0	0	1832
2023/24	Fa Cup	Tottenham Hotspur	2	103	0	0	—
2022/23	Uefa Champions League	Tottenham Hotspur	7	625	1	2	1622
2022/23	Fa Cup	Tottenham Hotspur	1	90	0	0	—
2021/22	Fa Cup	Tottenham Hotspur	2	210	0	1	—
2021/22	Uefa Conference League Qualifying	Tottenham Hotspur	1	27	0	0	1334
2020/21	Uefa Europa League	Tottenham Hotspur	7	301	0	0	1535
2020/21	Fa Cup	Tottenham Hotspur	2	165	0	1	—
2020/21	Uefa Europa League Qualifying	Tottenham Hotspur	2	153	0	0	1394
2019/20	Fa Cup	Southampton FC	2	180	0	0	—
2017/18	Fa Cup	Southampton FC	5	401	1	0	—
2016/17	Uefa Europa League	Southampton FC	6	412	0	0	1509
2016/17	Fa Cup	Southampton FC	2	180	0	1	—
2015/16	Uefa Europa League	FC Schalke 04	6	358	0	0	1432
2015/16	Dfb Pokal	Bayern Munich	1	45	0	0	—
2015/16	Dfb Pokal	FC Schalke 04	1	13	0	0	—
2014/15	Uefa Champions League	Bayern Munich	3	182	0	0	1677
2014/15	Franz Beckenbauer Supercup	Bayern Munich	1	59	0	0	1751
2014/15	Dfb Pokal	Bayern Munich	1	20	0	0	—
2013/14	Dfb Pokal	Bayern Munich	2	106	0	0	—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)	Age	Value then	~2y later	Outcome
Benjamin Bourigeaud Ligue 1 · 2024	30	€18.0M	€5.0M	fell
Marco Parolo Serie A · 2014	29	€6.0M	€6.5M	flat
Pierre Lees-Melou Ligue 1 · 2024	31	€10.0M	€4.5M	fell
Pablo Batalla Super Lig · 2013	29	€7.5M	€3.8M	fell
Yuriy Gazinskiy Premier Liga · 2019	30	€10.0M	€4.0M	fell
Luiz Gustavo Ligue 1 · 2018	31	€15.0M	€5.5M	fell
Selcuk Inan Super Lig · 2014	29	€12.0M	€6.0M	fell
Maximilian Arnold Bundesliga · 2023	29	€14.0M	€5.0M	fell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

Date	From	To	Fee	MV at time
1 Jul 2025	Tottenham	Marseille	€13.5M	€20.0M
30 Jun 2025	Marseille	Tottenham	Free / loan	€20.0M
22 Jul 2024	Tottenham	Marseille	Free / loan	€18.0M
11 Aug 2020	Southampton	Tottenham	€16.6M	€20.0M
11 Jul 2016	Bayern Munich	Southampton	€15.0M	€6.0M
30 Jun 2016	FC Schalke 04	Bayern Munich	Free / loan	€6.0M
28 Aug 2015	Bayern Munich	FC Schalke 04	Free / loan	€6.5M
30 Jun 2015	Augsburg	Bayern Munich	Free / loan	€4.0M
7 Jan 2015	Bayern Munich	Augsburg	Free / loan	€4.0M
1 Jul 2013	FC Bayern II	Bayern Munich	Unknown	€500k
1 Jul 2012	Bröndby IF U17	FC Bayern II	Free / loan	Data unavailable
1 Jul 2010	Bröndby Youth	Bröndby IF U17	Unknown	Data unavailable
1 Jul 2009	FCK Youth	Bröndby Youth	Free / loan	Data unavailable
1 Jul 2007	BK Skjold U19	FCK Youth	Unknown	Data unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.