Salih Uçan

32 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM) · Türkiye
Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 182 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€800k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€215k – €945k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€228k – €806k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€250k – €651k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€717k – €591k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€215k – €945k
Model value (performance-implied)€228k – €806k
Projected value (24 months)€250k – €651k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Salih Uçan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (514 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average28.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €465k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-48% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
514 (17% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
29 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1350
Opponent strength
1273
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€250k – €651k

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 32% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -41% to -8%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 514 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCM1951417%000.000.12127313500.40
2024/25Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCM1748815%010.180.16127013400.39
2023/24Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCM23157446%140.290.18127013360.45
2022/23Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCM29222969%380.440.27129115170.50
2021/22Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCM1043913%000.000.11122713420.42
2021/22Basaksehir FKSuper LigCM102588%000.000.15121513720.42
2020/21AlanyasporSuper LigCM35244068%260.300.23128312600.37
2019/20AlanyasporSuper LigCM26129642%110.140.14133113520.45
2018/19FC EmpoliSerie ACM142507%110.720.58155613040.78
2016/17FenerbahceSuper LigAM1140313%010.220.23140915470.62
2015/16Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ACM3391%000.000.16141316650.95
2014/15Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ACM41655%010.550.17139215740.93
2013/14FenerbahceSuper LigAM1638813%020.460.28145815920.78
2012/13FenerbahceSuper LigCM1042014%300.640.26138515910.89

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü7130001506
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü13101378
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü6409121342
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü5109001691
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingAlanyaspor190001483
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingFenerbahce2172001517
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingFenerbahce2143011384
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueFenerbahce249001458
2015/16Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma112000—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma222001747
2012/13Uefa Europa LeagueFenerbahce7268101584

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Paweł Olkowski
Super Lig · 2020
30€525k€125kfell
Tayfur Bingöl
Super Lig · 2024
31€700k€400kfell
Omar El Kaddouri
Super League 1 · 2023
33€1.0M€600kfell
Loret Sadiku
Super Lig · 2024
33€375k€375kflat
Steven Defour
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
33€900k€900kflat
Chris Clark
Scottish Premiership · 2013
33€325k€275kflat
Don Cowie
Scottish Premiership · 2016
33€500k€450kflat
Cheick Doukouré
Super League 1 · 2023
31€600k€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2022BasaksehirBesiktasFree / loan€3.0M
28 Jan 2022BesiktasBasaksehirFree / loan€3.2M
4 Jul 2021AlanyasporBesiktasFree / loan€4.6M
11 Jul 2019FC EmpoliAlanyasporFree / loan€1.0M
31 Jan 2019FenerbahçeFC EmpoliFree / loan€1.8M
30 Jan 2019FC EmpoliFenerbahçeFree / loan€1.8M
17 Aug 2018FenerbahçeFC EmpoliFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2018FC SionFenerbahçeFree / loan€2.0M
31 Aug 2017FenerbahçeFC SionFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2016RomaFenerbahçeFree / loan€3.0M
18 Jul 2014FenerbahçeRomaFree / loan€3.5M
1 Jul 2012BucasporFenerbahçe€1.6M€1.0M
1 Jul 2011Bucaspor U21BucasporUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2010Bucaspor YthBucaspor U21UnknownData unavailable
19 Sept 2008Marmaris Bld YthBucaspor YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Salih Uçan · MoneyballAI