
Massadio Haïdara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Massadio Haïdara's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 40.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €212k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1817 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1188
- Opponent strength
- 1250
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €150k – €514k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-283 Elo); league level down (-197 Elo); relative output up 143% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -48% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kocaelispor | Super Lig | LB | 23 | 1817 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1250 | 1188 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | LB | 22 | 1680 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1433 | 1472 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | LB | 18 | 735 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1473 | 1518 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | LB | 36 | 1656 | 48% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1427 | 1626 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | LB | 20 | 1078 | 32% | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 1387 | 1492 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | LM | 25 | 2136 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1428 | 1371 | 0.75 |
| 2017/18 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LB | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1683 | 1493 | 1.15 |
| 2015/16 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LB | 7 | 555 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 1568 | 1435 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LB | 15 | 1099 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1499 | 1404 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LB | 11 | 426 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1590 | 1463 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | AS Nancy-Lorraine | Ligue 1 | LB | 17 | 1455 | 43% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1481 | 1363 | 0.88 |
| 2012/13 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LB | 4 | 199 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1533 | 1484 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 616 | 0 | 0 | 1709 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Lens | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | RC Lens | 2 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RC Lens | 4 | 115 | 0 | 0 | 1751 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League | Newcastle United | 4 | 337 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zakarya Bergdich Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €600k | €125k | fell |
| Mathieu Gomes Super League 1 · 2017 | 32 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Lionel Carole Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €550k | €200k | fell |
| Michael Smith Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 35 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Stavros Petavrakis Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| Kian Hansen Superliga · 2022 | 33 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Simon Ramsden Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 34 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Brian Hämäläinen Superliga · 2021 | 32 | €250k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | Stade Brestois | Kocaelispor | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Lens | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Newcastle | Lens | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 24 Jan 2013 | AS Nancy | Newcastle | €2.5M | €2.0M |
| 10 Jan 2011 | AS Nancy B | AS Nancy | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | AS Nancy U19 | AS Nancy B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | AS Nancy U17 | AS Nancy U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | ACBB U17 | AS Nancy U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | ACBB Youth | ACBB U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2005 | Versailles Yth. | ACBB Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.