Massadio Haïdara

33 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Mali
Kocaelispor · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 179 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€600k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€159k – €469k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€433k – €742k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€150k – €514k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€36k – €583k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€159k – €469k
Model value (performance-implied)€433k – €742k
Projected value (24 months)€150k – €514k
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Massadio Haïdara's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage40.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €212k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationVery low-48% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1817 (59% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
40 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1188
Opponent strength
1250
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€150k – €514k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-283 Elo); league level down (-197 Elo); relative output up 143% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -48% to -11%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KocaelisporSuper LigLB23181759%010.050.11125011880.40
2024/25Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1LB22168055%000.000.04143314720.88
2023/24RC LensLigue 1LB1873524%010.120.10147315180.87
2022/23RC LensLigue 1LB36165648%020.110.10142716260.82
2021/22RC LensLigue 1LB20107832%120.250.20138714920.86
2020/21RC LensLigue 1LM25213662%210.130.14142813710.75
2017/18Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueLB130%000.000.22168314931.15
2015/16Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueLB755516%010.160.18156814351.08
2014/15Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueLB15109932%010.080.10149914041.06
2013/14Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueLB1142612%000.000.11159014631.12
2012/13AS Nancy-LorraineLigue 1LB17145543%010.060.13148113630.88
2012/13Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueLB41996%000.000.09153314841.07

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueStade Brestois 298616001709
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingRC Lens119001439
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueRC Lens2129001510
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueRC Lens4115001751
2017/18Fa CupNewcastle United19000—
2014/15Fa CupNewcastle United19000—
2013/14Fa CupNewcastle United19000—
2012/13Uefa Europa LeagueNewcastle United4337001588

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Zakarya Bergdich
Super Lig · 2020
31€600k€125kfell
Mathieu Gomes
Super League 1 · 2017
32€350k€300kflat
Lionel Carole
Super Lig · 2024
33€550k€200kfell
Michael Smith
Scottish Premiership · 2023
35€350k€350kflat
Stavros Petavrakis
Super League 1 · 2024
32€300k€175kfell
Kian Hansen
Superliga · 2022
33€400k€300kfell
Simon Ramsden
Scottish Premiership · 2015
34€300k€300kflat
Brian Hämäläinen
Superliga · 2021
32€250k€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Jul 2025Stade BrestoisKocaelisporFree / loan€1.5M
30 Aug 2024LensStade BrestoisFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jul 2018NewcastleLensFree / loan€1.5M
24 Jan 2013AS NancyNewcastle€2.5M€2.0M
10 Jan 2011AS Nancy BAS NancyUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010AS Nancy U19AS Nancy BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009AS Nancy U17AS Nancy U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008ACBB U17AS Nancy U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2007ACBB YouthACBB U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Oct 2005Versailles Yth.ACBB YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Massadio Haïdara · MoneyballAI