James Tarkowski
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates James Tarkowski's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-8.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-6.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-2.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 98th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -66% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3330 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1556
- Opponent strength
- 1594
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €2.8M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -75% to -53%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Everton FC | Premier League | CB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 1594 | 1556 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Everton FC | Premier League | CB | 33 | 2924 | 85% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1579 | 1567 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Everton FC | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1578 | 1514 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Everton FC | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1576 | 1475 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 35 | 3107 | 91% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1577 | 1442 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1561 | 1480 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1589 | 1535 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 35 | 3087 | 90% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1564 | 1501 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 31 | 2790 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1535 | 1502 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 19 | 556 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1528 | 1411 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 206 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Burnley FC | 5 | 329 | 0 | 0 | 1450 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Cresswell Premier League · 2021 | 32 | €5.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Charlie Daniels Premier League · 2018 | 32 | €3.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Fabian Schär Premier League · 2024 | 33 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Ashley Williams Premier League · 2017 | 33 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Robert Huth Premier League · 2017 | 33 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jesús Navas Laliga · 2020 | 35 | €3.2M | €3.0M | flat |
| Pontus Jansson Premier League · 2022 | 31 | €7.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Phil Jagielka Premier League · 2015 | 33 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2022 | Burnley | Everton | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Brentford | Burnley | €4.0M | €350k |
| 31 Jan 2014 | Oldham Athletic | Brentford | Unknown | €50k |
| 22 Jan 2011 | Oldham U18 | Oldham Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 19 May 2009 | Maine Road | Oldham U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.