Fabian Schär
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fabian Schär's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-4.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 95.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -68% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1091 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1558
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 54 pts; relative output down 77% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -64% (IQR -73% to -52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1091 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 16 | 1091 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1558 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 34 | 2938 | 86% | 4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1576 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3056 | 89% | 4 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 1582 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3210 | 94% | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1544 | 1678 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 25 | 2161 | 63% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1564 | 1545 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 18 | 1245 | 36% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1579 | 1500 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 22 | 1672 | 49% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1613 | 1476 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 24 | 2004 | 59% | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 1522 | 1532 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Deportivo de La Coruña | Laliga | CB | 25 | 2221 | 65% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 1569 | 1380 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 6 | 283 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1496 | 1592 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 24 | 1728 | 56% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1541 | 1428 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 3 | 131 | 0 | 0 | 1689 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 245 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 219 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo de La Coruña | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Demichelis Premier League · 2016 | 36 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
| Antonio Valencia Premier League · 2019 | 34 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Sven Bender Bundesliga · 2021 | 32 | €5.5M | €5.5M | flat |
| Xabi Etxeita Laliga · 2020 | 33 | €1.4M | €500k | fell |
| César Azpilicueta Premier League · 2023 | 34 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ragnar Klavan Premier League · 2017 | 32 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ezequiel Garay Laliga · 2020 | 34 | €4.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Rio Ferdinand Premier League · 2014 | 36 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2018 | Dep. La Coruña | Newcastle | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 21 Jul 2017 | Hoffenheim | Dep. La Coruña | €3.0M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Basel | Hoffenheim | €4.0M | €8.0M |
| 4 Jul 2012 | FC Wil 1900 | Basel | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2010 | FC Wil II | FC Wil 1900 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | FC Wil Yth. | FC Wil II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.