Davide Zappacosta
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Davide Zappacosta's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-8.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (2581 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 91.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.4M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2581 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1588
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €886k – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-91 Elo); role change LM -> RM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -68% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | RM | 35 | 2581 | 75% | 3 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 1507 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 30 | 2076 | 61% | 4 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 1496 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | RM | 31 | 1875 | 55% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1484 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | RM | 21 | 1476 | 43% | 4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 1469 | 1556 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | RM | 34 | 2355 | 69% | 1 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 1455 | 1566 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | RM | 25 | 2047 | 60% | 4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 1442 | 1394 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RB | 9 | 447 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1473 | 1582 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 4 | 125 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1489 | 1750 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RM | 22 | 1094 | 32% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1480 | 1667 | 1.15 |
| 2017/18 | Torino FC | Serie A | RB | 2 | 95 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1364 | 1481 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Torino FC | Serie A | RB | 29 | 2333 | 68% | 1 | 5 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 1501 | 1467 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Torino FC | Serie A | RM | 25 | 1261 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1478 | 1466 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | RB | 29 | 2260 | 66% | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 1474 | 1374 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 10 | 746 | 1 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 3 | 280 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 9 | 697 | 0 | 5 | 1601 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 2 | 149 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1833 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Super Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 11 | 735 | 0 | 4 | 1639 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 4 | 235 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 6 | 406 | 0 | 1 | 1658 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 4 | 335 | 0 | 1 | 1662 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Chelsea FC | 10 | 719 | 0 | 1 | 1492 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 5 | 353 | 1 | 1 | 1619 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giacomo Bonaventura Serie A · 2024 | 35 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Rémy Cabella Ligue 1 · 2023 | 33 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Xabi Prieto Laliga · 2017 | 34 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| David Pizarro Serie A · 2013 | 34 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Esteban Cambiasso Serie A · 2014 | 34 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jesús Navas Laliga · 2019 | 34 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Roman Shirokov Premier Liga · 2013 | 32 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Steed Malbranque Ligue 1 · 2013 | 33 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2021 | Chelsea | Atalanta | €9.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Genoa | Chelsea | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 19 Sept 2020 | Chelsea | Genoa | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Roma | Chelsea | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 21 Aug 2019 | Chelsea | Roma | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Torino | Chelsea | €25.0M | €8.5M |
| 10 Jul 2015 | Atalanta | Torino | €4.3M | €5.5M |
| 2 Jul 2014 | AS Avellino | Atalanta | €900k | €1.3M |
| 12 Jul 2012 | Atalanta | AS Avellino | €40k | €225k |
| 30 Jun 2012 | AS Avellino | Atalanta | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Aug 2011 | Atalanta U19 | AS Avellino | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Isola Liri | Atalanta U19 | €60k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Isola Liri Yout | Isola Liri | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Sora Gio. | Isola Liri Yout | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.