Rony Lopes

30 yrs · Right winger (also AM, LW) · Portugal
CD Tondela · Liga Portugal · Foot: left · Height: 174 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
73/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€283k – €1.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€423k – €1.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€419k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€805k – €1.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€283k – €1.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€423k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€419k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rony Lopes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.65x the positional average in the league (1042 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 73

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average31.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €657k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationVery low-32% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €28.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1042 (34% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.52
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.66
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
31 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1194
Opponent strength
1311
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€419k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+44 Elo); role change RW -> AM; relative output up 102% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -44% to -13%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1042 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (MID)
Relative output kept
72%–151%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26CD TondelaLiga PortugalAM16104234%420.520.66131111940.58
2024/25SC FarenseLiga PortugalRW14113537%100.080.35135111840.51
2024/25AlanyasporSuper LigRW1532510%010.280.37125012470.39
2023/24SC BragaLiga PortugalRW2335312%200.510.33136514990.58
2022/23ESTAC TroyesLigue 1RW32235969%750.460.54144112470.82
2021/22Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RW1356424%120.480.25120614990.39
2020/21OGC NiceLigue 1RW28179953%310.200.30146213980.75
2019/20Sevilla FCLaligaLW51334%000.000.34149816741.16
2019/20AS MonacoLigue 1LW1823%000.000.61160414260.82
2018/19AS MonacoLigue 1LW24185654%220.190.30146813960.82
2017/18AS MonacoLigue 1RW38255075%1570.780.42143716200.85
2016/17LOSC LilleLigue 1RW25187555%440.380.35138514480.88
2015/16LOSC LilleLigue 1RW1251615%210.520.44142015030.78
2015/16AS MonacoLigue 1AM21153%000.000.24142015220.78
2014/15LOSC LilleLigue 1AM23143942%330.380.35144014540.80

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSC Braga152001553
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingSC Braga249001321
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSC Braga12001661
2021/22Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios314412—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios5115001444
2021/22Uefa Europa League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios130001368
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueOGC Nice272001521
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueSevilla FC7409011401
2019/20Copa Del ReySevilla FC26000—
2018/19Trophee Des ChampionsAS Monaco165001774
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueAS Monaco5301111606
2017/18Trophee Des ChampionsAS Monaco124001757
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingLOSC Lille2180001344
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueLOSC Lille190001533
2014/15Uefa Champions League QualifyingLOSC Lille247001615
2013/14Fa CupManchester City15700—
2012/13Fa CupManchester City1210—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Johanna Omolo
Jupiler Pro League · 2019
30€600k€500kflat
Héctor Canteros
Super Lig · 2019
30€1.0M€600kfell
Jean Felipe
Liga Portugal · 2024
30€500k€500kflat
Rafael Crivellaro
Liga Portugal · 2017
28€600k€350kfell
Renan Bressan
Liga Portugal · 2017
29€1.5M€750kfell
Navarone Foor
Eredivisie · 2023
31€500k€400kfell
Furkan Soyalp
Super Lig · 2023
28€1.2M€400kfell
Maksim Kuzmin
Premier Liga · 2024
28€700k€800kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026TondelaWithout ClubUnknown€1.2M
1 Sept 2025AlanyasporTondelaUnknown€2.0M
30 Jun 2025FarenseAlanyasporFree / loan€2.0M
1 Feb 2025AlanyasporFarenseFree / loan€2.0M
16 Aug 2024BragaAlanyasporFree / loan€2.5M
2 Aug 2023Sevilla FCBragaFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2023TroyesSevilla FCFree / loan€4.0M
24 Aug 2022Sevilla FCTroyesFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2022OlympiacosSevilla FCFree / loan€4.0M
17 Aug 2021Sevilla FCOlympiacosFree / loan€7.0M
30 Jun 2021NiceSevilla FCFree / loan€7.0M
29 Jul 2020Sevilla FCNiceFree / loan€10.0M
14 Aug 2019MonacoSevilla FC€25.0M€25.0M
30 Jun 2017LilleMonacoFree / loan€8.0M
7 Jan 2016MonacoLilleFree / loan€10.0M
28 Aug 2015Man CityMonaco€12.0M€4.5M
30 Jun 2015LilleMan CityFree / loan€4.5M
7 Jul 2014Man CityLilleFree / loanData unavailable
15 Aug 2012Man City U18Man CityUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2012Benfica U17Man City U18€1.0MData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Benfica U15Benfica U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Benfica YthBenfica U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Rony Lopes · MoneyballAI