Julián Cuesta
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Julián Cuesta's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 40.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €71k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1800 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1139
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €49k – €198k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 37 pts; changed club; team strength down (-149 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -69% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | GK | 20 | 1800 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1267 | 1139 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 25 | 2250 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1270 | 1288 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 21 | 1890 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1264 | 1348 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 25 | 2250 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1239 | 1314 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 17 | 1530 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1257 | 1339 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 8 | 720 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1257 | 1343 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 14 | 1215 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1290 | 1293 | 0.46 |
| 2018/19 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 30 | 2638 | 98% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1303 | 1272 | 0.43 |
| 2014/15 | UD Almería | Laliga | GK | 15 | 1350 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1587 | 1403 | 1.18 |
| 2012/13 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1415 | 1528 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1374 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1452 |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1243 |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1456 |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | UD Almería | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaos Papadopoulos Super League 1 · 2024 | 34 | €250k | €125k | fell |
| Dimitrios Sotiriou Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Boris Kleyman Super League 1 · 2024 | 34 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Trevor Carson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 36 | €150k | €25k | fell |
| David Jensen Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Oleksandr Bandura Premier Liga · 2024 | 38 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Davino Verhulst Super League 1 · 2022 | 35 | €150k | €50k | fell |
| Serkan Kirintili Super Lig · 2020 | 35 | €400k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2025 | Aris Saloniki | Antalyaspor | Free / loan | €400k |
| 11 Jul 2018 | Wisla Kraków | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | UD Almería | Wisla Kraków | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sevilla FC | UD Almería | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | UD Almería | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €300k |
| 21 Jan 2014 | Sevilla FC | UD Almería | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sevilla Atl. | Sevilla FC | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Sevilla FC C | Sevilla Atl. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Sevilla FC U19 | Sevilla FC C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.