Gerard Moreno
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gerard Moreno's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1350 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 81.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1350 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.67
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1468
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €799k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -71% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1350 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 22 | 1350 | 39% | 10 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.48 | 1468 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 17 | 718 | 21% | 3 | 2 | 0.63 | 0.52 | 1532 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 30 | 2276 | 67% | 10 | 6 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 1494 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 21 | 1231 | 36% | 7 | 3 | 0.73 | 0.52 | 1497 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 17 | 1194 | 35% | 9 | 3 | 0.90 | 0.56 | 1504 | 1661 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 33 | 2682 | 78% | 23 | 7 | 1.01 | 0.74 | 1564 | 1676 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2752 | 80% | 18 | 6 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 1538 | 1610 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2316 | 68% | 8 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 1536 | 1569 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 38 | 3413 | 100% | 16 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 1548 | 1523 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 37 | 3280 | 96% | 13 | 4 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 1557 | 1520 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 32 | 1916 | 56% | 7 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 1574 | 1474 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 2 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1492 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 6 | 316 | 1 | 1 | 1545 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 179 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 245 | 3 | 3 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Villarreal CF | 2 | 93 | 1 | 0 | 1418 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 7 | 524 | 2 | 3 | 1768 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Super Cup | Villarreal CF | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | 1754 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 74 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 12 | 880 | 7 | 4 | 1622 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 164 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 11 | 712 | 4 | 1 | 1554 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 60 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 6 | 471 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 4 | 243 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouna Koné Premier League · 2016 | 33 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Antonio Floro Flores Serie A · 2016 | 33 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
| Andriy Voronin Premier Liga · 2014 | 35 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Loïc Rémy Ligue 1 · 2020 | 33 | €2.0M | €150k | fell |
| Edinson Cavani Laliga · 2023 | 36 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Raúl Jiménez Premier League · 2024 | 33 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Didier Drogba Super Lig · 2013 | 35 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Charles Laliga · 2018 | 34 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | Espanyol | Villarreal | €20.0M | €20.0M |
| 13 Aug 2015 | Villarreal | Espanyol | €1.5M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | RCD Mallorca | Villarreal | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 8 Jul 2013 | Villarreal | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Villarreal CF B | Villarreal | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FC Villarreal C | Villarreal CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Villarreal U19 | FC Villarreal C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | CF Badalona You | Villarreal U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Espanyol Youth | CF Badalona You | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2001 | CF Damm Youth | Espanyol Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.