
Dani García
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dani García's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.58x the positional average in the league (915 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 63.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €246k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 915 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1550
- Opponent strength
- 1223
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €163k – €643k
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo); relative output up 99% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -75% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 915 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | DM | 15 | 915 | 39% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1223 | 1550 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | DM | 21 | 1108 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1272 | 1525 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 17 | 738 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 1506 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 25 | 1493 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 1513 | 1487 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 32 | 2186 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1542 | 1551 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 27 | 1920 | 56% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 1568 | 1541 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | DM | 36 | 3027 | 89% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1546 | 1543 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 29 | 2482 | 73% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1561 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | SD Eibar | Laliga | DM | 32 | 2781 | 81% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1541 | 1520 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | SD Eibar | Laliga | CM | 36 | 3185 | 93% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1565 | 1507 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | SD Eibar | Laliga | CM | 35 | 3011 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1584 | 1430 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | SD Eibar | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2967 | 87% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 1569 | 1424 | 1.18 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 8 | 430 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 163 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 406 | 0 | 1 | 1534 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 254 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 44 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 369 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1761 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 279 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 1793 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 460 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | SD Eibar | 2 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | SD Eibar | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Valbuena Super League 1 · 2021 | 37 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Edmar Galovskyi Premier Liga · 2016 | 36 | €700k | €200k | fell |
| Scott Arfield Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 34 | €1.5M | €250k | fell |
| Selcuk Inan Super Lig · 2019 | 34 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Mehmet Topal Super Lig · 2020 | 34 | €900k | €100k | fell |
| Alaixys Romao Super League 1 · 2017 | 33 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Stefan Schwab Super League 1 · 2023 | 33 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| David Fuster Super League 1 · 2015 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | Athletic Club | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | SD Eibar | Athletic Club | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Real Sociedad B | SD Eibar | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | SD Eibar | Real Sociedad B | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Real Sociedad B | SD Eibar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2013 | SD Eibar | Real Sociedad B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jul 2012 | Real Sociedad B | SD Eibar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 7 Jul 2012 | Getafe CF B | Real Sociedad B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Alicante | Getafe CF B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | R. Sociedad U19 | Alicante | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.