Dani García

36 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Spain
Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€700k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€184k – €603k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€591k – €1.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€163k – €643k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€13k – €1.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€184k – €603k
Model value (performance-implied)€591k – €1.6M
Projected value (24 months)€163k – €643k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dani García's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.58x the positional average in the league (915 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAbove average63.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable36.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €246k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationVery low-47% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
915 (39% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
64 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1550
Opponent strength
1223
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€163k – €643k

Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo); relative output up 99% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -75% to -39%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 915 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
14 (MID)
Relative output kept
67%–189%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
64%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1DM1591539%100.100.07122315500.43
2024/25Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1DM21110847%000.000.04127215250.35
2023/24Athletic BilbaoLaligaCM1773822%100.120.19150615831.00
2022/23Athletic BilbaoLaligaCM25149344%020.120.16151314870.98
2021/22Athletic BilbaoLaligaCM32218664%000.000.07154215511.05
2020/21Athletic BilbaoLaligaCM27192056%010.050.12156815411.10
2019/20Athletic BilbaoLaligaDM36302789%010.030.06154615431.16
2018/19Athletic BilbaoLaligaCM29248273%010.040.10156115401.14
2017/18SD EibarLaligaDM32278181%010.030.07154115201.11
2016/17SD EibarLaligaCM36318593%110.060.12156515071.11
2015/16SD EibarLaligaCM35301188%000.000.06158414301.17
2014/15SD EibarLaligaCM34296787%120.090.16156914241.18

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios8430001704
2025/26Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios316300—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios6406011534
2024/25Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios425401—
2023/24Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao24400—
2022/23Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao413100—
2021/22Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao536900—
2021/22SupercopaAthletic Bilbao2180011761
2020/21Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao627900—
2020/21SupercopaAthletic Bilbao2210011793
2019/20Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao546000—
2018/19Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao314100—
2016/17Copa Del ReySD Eibar28700—
2014/15Copa Del ReySD Eibar12200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mathieu Valbuena
Super League 1 · 2021
37€1.0M€400kfell
Edmar Galovskyi
Premier Liga · 2016
36€700k€200kfell
Scott Arfield
Scottish Premiership · 2022
34€1.5M€250kfell
Selcuk Inan
Super Lig · 2019
34€450k€300kfell
Mehmet Topal
Super Lig · 2020
34€900k€100kfell
Alaixys Romao
Super League 1 · 2017
33€800k€500kfell
Stefan Schwab
Super League 1 · 2023
33€1.0M€600kfell
David Fuster
Super League 1 · 2015
33€1.0M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
5 Jul 2024Athletic ClubOlympiacosFree / loan€1.8M
1 Jul 2018SD EibarAthletic ClubFree / loan€4.0M
1 Jul 2014Real Sociedad BSD EibarFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2014SD EibarReal Sociedad BFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2013Real Sociedad BSD EibarFree / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2013SD EibarReal Sociedad BFree / loanData unavailable
8 Jul 2012Real Sociedad BSD EibarFree / loanData unavailable
7 Jul 2012Getafe CF BReal Sociedad BFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011AlicanteGetafe CF BFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2009R. Sociedad U19AlicanteFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Dani García · MoneyballAI