Sébastien Haller
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sébastien Haller's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (956 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €349k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 956 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 25)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1278
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €339k – €849k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; league level down (-75 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -73% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 956 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 21 | 956 | 31% | 1 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 1278 | 1352 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 16 | 1276 | 42% | 4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 1294 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2024/25 | CD Leganés | Laliga | ST | 8 | 405 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1510 | 1396 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 14 | 388 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 1456 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 19 | 1233 | 40% | 9 | 5 | 1.02 | 0.57 | 1514 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 31 | 2579 | 84% | 21 | 7 | 0.98 | 0.37 | 1310 | 1749 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 19 | 1570 | 51% | 11 | 5 | 0.92 | 0.37 | 1372 | 1722 | 0.56 |
| 2020/21 | West Ham United | Premier League | ST | 16 | 935 | 27% | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 1546 | 1600 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | West Ham United | Premier League | ST | 32 | 2263 | 66% | 7 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 1579 | 1486 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 2181 | 71% | 15 | 9 | 0.99 | 0.69 | 1513 | 1593 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 31 | 2352 | 77% | 9 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 1515 | 1479 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 32 | 2854 | 93% | 13 | 5 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 1351 | 1425 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 33 | 2839 | 93% | 17 | 4 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 1327 | 1369 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 17 | 1299 | 42% | 11 | 5 | 1.11 | 0.88 | 1339 | 1289 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Utrecht | 7 | 428 | 0 | 1 | 1524 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Utrecht | 2 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1341 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CD Leganés | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 90 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 76 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1715 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 1658 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 8 | 668 | 11 | 2 | 1608 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 186 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 315 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 10 | 774 | 6 | 3 | 1560 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1863 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 379 | 4 | 3 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 3 | 300 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 5 | 447 | 5 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serdar Gürler Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €800k | €150k | fell |
| Kevin Lasagna Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €950k | €950k | flat |
| Nick van der Velden Eredivisie · 2015 | 34 | €600k | €125k | fell |
| Nicolai Jörgensen Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Volodymyr Gomenyuk Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Eduardo Brito Super League 1 · 2015 | 33 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Laurent Depoitre Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Vincent Aboubakar Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €3.4M | €3.4M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2025 | Dortmund | Utrecht | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Utrecht | Dortmund | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 9 Jan 2025 | CD Leganés | Dortmund | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 9 Jan 2025 | Dortmund | Utrecht | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Dortmund | CD Leganés | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Ajax | Dortmund | €31.0M | €35.0M |
| 8 Jan 2021 | West Ham | Ajax | €22.5M | €30.0M |
| 17 Jul 2019 | Frankfurt | West Ham | €50.0M | €40.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Utrecht | Frankfurt | €12.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AJ Auxerre | Utrecht | €750k | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Utrecht | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jan 2015 | AJ Auxerre | Utrecht | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | AJ Auxerre B | AJ Auxerre | Unknown | €200k |
| 27 Nov 2010 | AJ Auxerre U19 | AJ Auxerre B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | AJ Auxerre U17 | AJ Auxerre U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | AJ Auxerre Yth. | AJ Auxerre U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Bretigny Yth. | AJ Auxerre Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Vigneux Yth. | Bretigny Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.