Serdar Gürler

35 yrs · Left winger (also RW) · Türkiye
Eyüpspor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 175 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€150k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€44k – €174k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€138k – €328k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€53k – €149k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€36k – €284k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€44k – €174k
Model value (performance-implied)€138k – €328k
Projected value (24 months)€53k – €149k
Dashed line: current market value (€150k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Serdar Gürler's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.50x the positional average in the league (1290 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average13.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €81k vs market €150k
Expected appreciationLow-12% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1290 (42% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.20
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
14 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1204
Opponent strength
1270
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€53k – €149k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 22 pts; changed club; team strength down (-82 Elo); relative output down 27% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -43% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1290 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (ATT)
Relative output kept
79%–133%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
58%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26EyüpsporSuper LigLW17129042%000.000.20127012040.40
2024/25Basaksehir FKSuper LigLW1264820%110.280.29125112860.39
2023/24Basaksehir FKSuper LigLW21101130%100.090.25135913970.45
2022/23Basaksehir FKSuper LigLW31188158%640.480.33128113950.50
2021/22KonyasporSuper LigRW18129938%460.690.54123813300.42
2021/22Basaksehir FKSuper LigRW1666219%230.680.47128713720.42
2020/21AntalyasporSuper LigRW1534910%000.000.31127411880.37
2019/20GöztepeSuper LigLW26215570%760.540.52133712330.45
2018/19GöztepeSuper LigRW15112137%220.320.44139912990.58
2018/19SD HuescaLaligaRW1348114%010.190.50154714101.14
2017/18AnkarasporSuper LigRW29243079%1250.630.60139013310.68
2016/17Gençlerbirliği Spor KulübüSuper LigRW31267487%1340.570.51137413620.62
2015/16Gençlerbirliği Spor KulübüSuper LigLW1240013%100.230.42141413680.64
2014/15Kayseri ErciyessporSuper LigRW1072924%110.250.41142112690.72
2014/15TrabzonsporSuper LigRW732010%000.000.24136114620.72
2013/14ElazigsporSuper LigRW31246380%190.370.46146613250.78
2012/13ElazigsporSuper LigLW23157451%620.460.49140014200.89

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingBasaksehir FK470011109
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingBasaksehir FK6396001379
2018/19Copa Del ReySD Huesca217000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alper Potuk
Super Lig · 2022
31€200k€200kflat
Lefteris Matsoukas
Super League 1 · 2022
32€150k€75kfell
Ryan Babel
Super Lig · 2022
36€350k€150kfell
Rilwan Hassan
Superliga · 2022
31€250k€175kfell
Jeffrey Sarpong
Super League 1 · 2019
31€300k€300kflat
Kurtis Guthrie
Scottish Premiership · 2023
30€225k€150kfell
Kaan Kanak
Super Lig · 2023
33€175k€175kflat
Mike van Duinen
Eredivisie · 2023
32€250k€150kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Jan 2026EyüpsporCorum FKUnknown€150k
2 Jul 2025BasaksehirEyüpsporFree / loan€150k
13 Jan 2022KonyasporBasaksehir€802k€1.8M
1 Jul 2021AntalyasporKonyaspor€486k€1.1M
18 Aug 2020SD HuescaAntalyasporUnknown€1.2M
3 Aug 2020GöztepeSD HuescaFree / loan€1.2M
10 Jan 2019SD HuescaGöztepeFree / loan€2.0M
17 Aug 2018Osmanlispor FKSD Huesca€2.5M€3.5M
9 Aug 2017GenclerbirligiOsmanlispor FKFree / loan€2.5M
13 Jan 2016TrabzonsporGenclerbirligiFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2015K. ErciyessporTrabzonsporFree / loan€2.0M
23 Jan 2015TrabzonsporK. ErciyessporFree / loan€2.3M
1 Jul 2014ElazigsporTrabzonspor€1.3M€1.5M
4 Aug 2012FC SochauxElazigspor€110k€150k
1 Jul 2010FC Sochaux BFC SochauxUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008FC Sochaux U19FC Sochaux BUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Serdar Gürler · MoneyballAI