James Ward-Prowse
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates James Ward-Prowse's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-5.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (1097 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -67% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1097 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1410
- Opponent strength
- 1629
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-124 Elo); role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -65% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1097 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CM | 13 | 681 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 1629 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | CM | 5 | 416 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1590 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | West Ham United | Premier League | DM | 15 | 1042 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 1550 | 1520 | 1.23 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CM | 9 | 398 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 1672 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | West Ham United | Premier League | CM | 37 | 3004 | 88% | 7 | 7 | 0.42 | 0.30 | 1574 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CM | 38 | 3372 | 99% | 9 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 1583 | 1375 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CM | 36 | 3217 | 94% | 10 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 1579 | 1436 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CM | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 8 | 7 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 1562 | 1468 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CM | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 5 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 1597 | 1528 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Southampton FC | Premier League | AM | 26 | 1942 | 57% | 7 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.41 | 1571 | 1486 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Southampton FC | Premier League | RM | 30 | 1715 | 50% | 3 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 1556 | 1459 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CM | 30 | 1884 | 55% | 4 | 4 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 1537 | 1501 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CM | 33 | 1535 | 45% | 2 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 1514 | 1619 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Southampton FC | Premier League | AM | 25 | 1477 | 43% | 1 | 7 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 1550 | 1546 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Southampton FC | Premier League | RM | 34 | 1604 | 47% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 1554 | 1549 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CM | 15 | 483 | 14% | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.26 | 1584 | 1472 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 10 | 811 | 0 | 4 | 1524 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 2 | 121 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 4 | 420 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 3 | 220 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Southampton FC | 6 | 458 | 0 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Southampton FC | 3 | 263 | 0 | 2 | 1433 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2013/14 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 3 | 236 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Armstrong Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €4.5M | €800k | fell |
| Andreas Ivanschitz Laliga · 2015 | 32 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Matt Ritchie Premier League · 2021 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Tom Cairney Premier League · 2023 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Maxime Gonalons Laliga · 2021 | 32 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Andy King Premier League · 2018 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Cheikhou Kouyaté Premier League · 2023 | 34 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nampalys Mendy Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Burnley | West Ham | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 28 Jan 2026 | West Ham | Burnley | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Nott'm Forest | West Ham | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | West Ham | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 14 Aug 2023 | Southampton | West Ham | €34.8M | €38.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Southampton U18 | Southampton | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Southampton Aca | Southampton U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.