
Charles
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Charles's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €118k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1710 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €105k – €287k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -76% to -7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1710 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | GK | 19 | 1710 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1307 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | GK | 8 | 675 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1344 | 1397 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | GK | 14 | 1260 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1397 | 1252 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1439 | 1259 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | GK | 9 | 810 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1357 | 1298 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | GK | 21 | 1890 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1375 | 1299 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | GK | 27 | 2386 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1345 | 1359 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | GK | 18 | 1620 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1356 | 1351 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | CS Marítimo | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1495 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Reguero Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 31 | €275k | €250k | flat |
| Bogdan Shust Premier Liga · 2018 | 32 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Saso Fornezzi Super Lig · 2016 | 34 | €600k | €50k | fell |
| Sébastien Bruzzese Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 31 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Rafael Defendi Liga Portugal · 2016 | 33 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Giorgiy Shelia Premier Liga · 2022 | 34 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Muriel Liga Portugal · 2018 | 31 | €500k | €650k | rose |
| Maksym Kuchynskyi Premier Liga · 2019 | 31 | €300k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Olympiakos N. | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €200k |
| 8 Jul 2022 | Vizela | Olympiakos N. | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Marítimo | Vizela | Free / loan | €400k |
| 26 Jan 2016 | Vasco da Gama | Marítimo | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Apr 2015 | Vasco U20 | Vasco da Gama | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Cruzeiro U20 | Vasco U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.