Charles

32 yrs · Goalkeeper · Brazil
Vitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€300k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€88k – €300k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€266k – €1.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€105k – €287k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€34k – €1.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€88k – €300k
Model value (performance-implied)€266k – €1.2M
Projected value (24 months)€105k – €287k
Dashed line: current market value (€300k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Charles's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 85

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage37.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €118k vs market €300k
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1710 (56% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
38 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1361
Opponent strength
1307
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€105k – €287k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -76% to -7%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1710 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
182 (all positions)
Relative output kept
70%–147%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
73%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalGK19171056%000.000.00130713610.58
2023/24Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalGK867522%000.000.00134413970.58
2021/22FC VizelaLiga PortugalGK14126041%000.000.00139712520.67
2020/21CS MarítimoLiga PortugalGK32709%000.000.00143912590.61
2019/20CS MarítimoLiga PortugalGK981026%000.000.00135712980.59
2018/19CS MarítimoLiga PortugalGK21189062%000.000.00137512990.65
2017/18CS MarítimoLiga PortugalGK27238678%000.000.00134513590.64
2016/17CS MarítimoLiga PortugalGK18162053%000.000.00135613510.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingCS Marítimo4360001495

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Antonio Reguero
Scottish Premiership · 2013
31€275k€250kflat
Bogdan Shust
Premier Liga · 2018
32€400k€200kfell
Saso Fornezzi
Super Lig · 2016
34€600k€50kfell
Sébastien Bruzzese
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
31€400k€100kfell
Rafael Defendi
Liga Portugal · 2016
33€500k€100kfell
Giorgiy Shelia
Premier Liga · 2022
34€500k€500kflat
Muriel
Liga Portugal · 2018
31€500k€650krose
Maksym Kuchynskyi
Premier Liga · 2019
31€300k€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023Olympiakos N.Vit. GuimarãesFree / loan€200k
8 Jul 2022VizelaOlympiakos N.Free / loan€400k
1 Jul 2021MarítimoVizelaFree / loan€400k
26 Jan 2016Vasco da GamaMarítimoFree / loan€100k
1 Apr 2015Vasco U20Vasco da GamaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2014Cruzeiro U20Vasco U20UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.