Cláudio Winck
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cláudio Winck's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €234k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -59% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2303 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1203
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €250k – €523k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-65 Elo); relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -65% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | RB | 27 | 2303 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 1265 | 1203 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | RB | 29 | 2338 | 72% | 3 | 10 | 0.50 | 0.32 | 1298 | 1268 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | RB | 32 | 2862 | 84% | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1296 | 1290 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | RB | 34 | 2421 | 79% | 6 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 1409 | 1224 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | RB | 30 | 2578 | 84% | 4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 1372 | 1302 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | RB | 29 | 2488 | 81% | 0 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 1345 | 1259 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 2 | 27 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Pinto Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €525k | €200k | fell |
| Erdoğan Yeşilyurt Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Mathieu Gomes Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Andrew Davies Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 32 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Semih Kaya Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Antonio Luna Super League 1 · 2023 | 32 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Veysel Sarı Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €550k | €500k | flat |
| Caner Erkin Super Lig · 2022 | 34 | €850k | €225k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2023 | Marítimo | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €500k |
| 15 Sept 2020 | Vasco da Gama | Marítimo | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Internacional | Vasco da Gama | Free / loan | €900k |
| 31 Dec 2018 | Sport Recife | Internacional | Free / loan | €900k |
| 22 Mar 2018 | Internacional | Sport Recife | Free / loan | €750k |
| 31 Dec 2016 | Chapecoense | Internacional | Free / loan | €750k |
| 5 Apr 2016 | Internacional | Chapecoense | Free / loan | €700k |
| 17 Mar 2016 | Hellas Verona | Internacional | Free / loan | €700k |
| 20 Jul 2015 | Internacional | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Aug 2012 | Inter B | Internacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Inter U20 | Inter B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Grêmio U20 | Inter U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.