Paul Izzo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paul Izzo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €161k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1530 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 17 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1278
- Opponent strength
- 1283
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €245k – €453k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -38% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1530 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 67 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–125%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Randers FC | Superliga | GK | 17 | 1530 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1283 | 1278 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Randers FC | Superliga | GK | 22 | 1980 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1307 | 1276 | 0.38 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Gianniotis Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Alan Mannus Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 32 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Yevgen Past Premier Liga · 2019 | 31 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Ruud Boffin Super Lig · 2020 | 33 | €325k | €450k | rose |
| Benjamin Siegrist Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 30 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Markos Vellidis Super League 1 · 2018 | 31 | €750k | €325k | fell |
| Owain Fôn Williams Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 30 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Jon McLaughlin Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 31 | €400k | €325k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2024 | Melb. Victory | Randers FC | Unknown | €350k |
| 8 Jul 2022 | Xanthi | Melb. Victory | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Oct 2020 | Adelaide United | Xanthi | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Central Coast | Adelaide United | Free / loan | €300k |
| 8 Jul 2015 | Adelaide United | Central Coast | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Aug 2011 | Adelaide U21 | Adelaide United | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | FFA C. of Excel | Adelaide U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Campbelltown | FFA C. of Excel | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.