Andreas Gianniotis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andreas Gianniotis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 24.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €104k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2970 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1203
- Opponent strength
- 1261
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €97k – €275k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-65 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -64% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1261 | 1203 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | GK | 33 | 2970 | 92% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1300 | 1268 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | GK | 31 | 2790 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1286 | 1290 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | GK | 25 | 2183 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1259 | 1179 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | GK | 15 | 1350 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1261 | 1174 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | GK | 15 | 1292 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1296 | 1211 | 0.39 |
| 2018/19 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | GK | 7 | 630 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1314 | 1557 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | GK | 26 | 2340 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1295 | 1367 | 0.48 |
| 2016/17 | Panionios Athens | Super League 1 | GK | 28 | 2520 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1288 | 1334 | 0.44 |
| 2015/16 | Panionios Athens | Super League 1 | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1348 | 1290 | 0.46 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1401 |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
| 2016/17 | Kypello Elladas | Panionios Athens | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Kypello Elladas | Panionios Athens | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Giannina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannes Thór Halldórsson Superliga · 2018 | 34 | €350k | €175k | fell |
| Mladen Bozovic Super League 1 · 2018 | 34 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Radoslaw Cierzniak Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 32 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Nicolai Larsen Superliga · 2024 | 33 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Jesper Rask Superliga · 2020 | 32 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Bogdan Kogut Premier Liga · 2023 | 36 | €300k | €75k | fell |
| Michael McGovern Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 32 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Denys Sydorenko Premier Liga · 2022 | 33 | €300k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2023 | Atromitos | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €600k |
| 17 Sept 2021 | Without Club | Atromitos | Unknown | €700k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | M. Tel Aviv | Without Club | Unknown | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Atromitos | M. Tel Aviv | Free / loan | €700k |
| 6 Aug 2020 | M. Tel Aviv | Atromitos | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Olympiacos | M. Tel Aviv | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Atromitos | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 5 Sept 2017 | Olympiacos | Atromitos | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Panionios | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Olympiacos | Panionios | Free / loan | €250k |
| 23 Jan 2015 | PAS Giannina | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €250k |
| 8 Aug 2014 | Olympiacos | PAS Giannina | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Fostiras | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 Jan 2014 | Olympiacos | Fostiras | Free / loan | €250k |
| 5 Jul 2012 | Ethn. Gazoros | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Thrakikos | Ethn. Gazoros | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.