Stefano Denswil

33 yrs · Centre-back (also LB) · Suriname
Kayserispor · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 188 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€700k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€167k – €745k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€239k – €568k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€180k – €545k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€505k – €402k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€167k – €745k
Model value (performance-implied)€239k – €568k
Projected value (24 months)€180k – €545k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Stefano Denswil's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage36.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €371k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationVery low-57% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2722 (89% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.03
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
36 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1147
Opponent strength
1275
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€180k – €545k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 66 pts; changed club; team strength down (-160 Elo); relative output down 36% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -8% (IQR -57% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KayserisporSuper LigCB31272289%100.030.05127511470.40
2024/25TrabzonsporSuper LigCB975423%100.120.08129613070.39
2023/24TrabzonsporSuper LigCB26224766%110.080.06130013790.45
2022/23TrabzonsporSuper LigCB19118937%110.150.10127313770.50
2021/22TrabzonsporSuper LigCB28194157%020.090.06124814330.42
2020/21Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueCB941914%000.000.02133615700.55
2020/21Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ALB51123%000.000.13149613800.90
2019/20Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ACB26224166%010.040.06144013650.82
2018/19Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueCB25214279%110.080.06136915460.65
2017/18Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueCB23196273%200.090.07137615270.63
2016/17Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueCB29261097%110.070.05133414920.62
2015/16Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueCB17153057%100.060.04134215110.57
2014/15Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueCB760122%010.150.05127615740.54
2014/15Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB1903%000.000.03127015430.52
2013/14Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB17135044%100.070.04134715510.59
2012/13Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB42197%010.410.08132515440.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingTrabzonspor4360001374
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingTrabzonspor2210001443
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueTrabzonspor4342001545
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingTrabzonspor2148001480
2020/21Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909221000—
2019/20Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909218000—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV6540001645
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueClub Brugge KV2180101681
2018/19Volkswagen SupercupClub Brugge KV190001408
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingClub Brugge KV2180001377
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingClub Brugge KV2180201518
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV5450001574
2016/17Volkswagen SupercupClub Brugge KV190001368
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueClub Brugge KV4360001521
2015/16Volkswagen SupercupClub Brugge KV190001432
2014/15Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam327000—
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam2100001734
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam6489101642
2013/14Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam431501—
2013/14Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam190001649
2012/13Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam19010—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Aziz Behich
Super Lig · 2021
31€600k€550kflat
Maksym Zhychykov
Premier Liga · 2023
31€400k€400kflat
Dimitrios Kolovetsios
Super Lig · 2021
30€500k€700krose
Valeriy Bondarenko
Premier Liga · 2024
30€600k€250kfell
Zoran Kvrzic
Super Lig · 2021
33€300k€100kfell
Mitchell Dijks
Eredivisie · 2024
31€850k€850kflat
Björn Kopplin
Superliga · 2020
31€325k€300kflat
Giannis Kontoes
Super League 1 · 2018
32€350k€150kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
8 Aug 2025Without ClubKayserisporUnknown€1.5M
18 Feb 2025TrabzonsporWithout ClubUnknown€2.1M
1 Jul 2022BolognaTrabzonsporFree / loan€4.2M
30 Jun 2022TrabzonsporBolognaFree / loan€4.2M
24 Aug 2021BolognaTrabzonsporFree / loan€3.5M
30 Jun 2021Club BruggeBolognaFree / loan€3.5M
7 Jan 2021BolognaClub BruggeFree / loan€4.0M
6 Jul 2019Club BruggeBologna€6.0M€6.0M
4 Jan 2015AjaxClub Brugge€1.2M€3.0M
1 Jul 2012Ajax U19AjaxUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2010Ajax U17Ajax U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Ajax YouthAjax U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2001Hellas Sport YthAjax YouthUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.