Stephen Kingsley
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Stephen Kingsley's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €168k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 995 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1332
- Opponent strength
- 1247
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €128k – €455k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; team strength up (+95 Elo); role change CB -> LB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -36% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 995 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 16 | 995 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1247 | 1332 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 7 | 500 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1237 | 1237 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 29 | 2295 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1234 | 1322 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 20 | 1422 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1294 | 1250 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 30 | 2544 | 86% | 6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 1328 | 1355 | 0.50 |
| 2016/17 | Swansea City | Premier League | LB | 13 | 1036 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1552 | 1455 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Swansea City | Premier League | LB | 4 | 356 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 1574 | 1508 | 1.08 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 | 43 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Heart of Midlothian FC | 4 | 274 | 0 | 2 | 1477 |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 3 | 192 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 5 | 507 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 240 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Swansea City | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Swansea City | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohan Mollo Super League 1 · 2021 | 32 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Eric Lichaj Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Rasmus Thelander Superliga · 2020 | 29 | €550k | €600k | flat |
| Fernando Alloco Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Christos Pipinis Super League 1 · 2015 | 31 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Patrick Kristensen Superliga · 2020 | 33 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Juninho Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Mathias Nielsen Superliga · 2021 | 30 | €300k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2020 | Hull City | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 23 Aug 2017 | Swansea | Hull City | €3.3M | €750k |
| 27 Nov 2015 | Crewe Alexandra | Swansea | Free / loan | €500k |
| 26 Aug 2015 | Swansea | Crewe Alexandra | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 May 2015 | Yeovil Town | Swansea | Free / loan | €500k |
| 18 Feb 2015 | Swansea | Yeovil Town | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Falkirk | Swansea | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Falkirk FC U17 | Falkirk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.