Juninho

30 yrs · Left-back · Brazil
Zorya Lugansk · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 175 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 Dec 2026
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€0 – €259k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€314k – €653k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€231k – €597k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€55k – €653k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€0 – €259k
Model value (performance-implied)€314k – €653k
Projected value (24 months)€231k – €597k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Juninho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.

Bargain Index: 59

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average22.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €41k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-46% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2293 (85% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.20
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.20
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
23 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1192
Opponent strength
1167
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€231k – €597k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; relative output up 83% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -57% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Zorya LuganskPremier LigaLB28229385%140.200.20116711920.25
2024/25Zorya LuganskPremier LigaLB24163961%010.050.11122211820.28
2023/24Zorya LuganskPremier LigaLB1068725%000.000.08123812350.34
2021/22Zorya LuganskPremier LigaLB1185553%010.110.09127914260.45
2020/21Zorya LuganskPremier LigaLB1389738%110.200.13129214500.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupZorya Lugansk12200—
2024/25Ukrainian CupZorya Lugansk216600—
2021/22Uefa Europa League QualifyingZorya Lugansk2173001460
2021/22Ukrainian CupZorya Lugansk12900—
2020/21Ukrainian CupZorya Lugansk112000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Semih Kaya
Super Lig · 2021
30€900k€400kfell
Alex Gogic
Scottish Premiership · 2024
30€500k€200kfell
Vitaliy Yermakov
Premier Liga · 2023
31€400k€100kfell
Petro Stasyuk
Premier Liga · 2024
29€500k€400kfell
Federico Álvarez
Super League 1 · 2022
28€600k€500kflat
Dimitrios Chatziisaias
Super League 1 · 2023
31€450k€450kflat
Mykola Morozyuk
Super Lig · 2021
33€400k€300kfell
Andriy Ponedelnik
Premier Liga · 2024
27€900k€800kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
29 Jan 2024Career breakZorya LuganskUnknown€500k
9 Jul 2023PafosCareer breakUnknown€600k
3 Jul 2022Zorya LuganskPafosFree / loan€800k
28 Jul 2020VardarZorya LuganskFree / loan€550k
1 Jan 2019MakedonijaVardarUnknown€250k
1 Jul 2018SalgueiroMakedonijaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2018TupiSalgueiroFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017MetropolitanoTupiFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.