
Juninho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Juninho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €41k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2293 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1192
- Opponent strength
- 1167
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €231k – €597k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; relative output up 83% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -57% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | LB | 28 | 2293 | 85% | 1 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 1167 | 1192 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | LB | 24 | 1639 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1222 | 1182 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | LB | 10 | 687 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1238 | 1235 | 0.34 |
| 2021/22 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | LB | 11 | 855 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1279 | 1426 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | LB | 13 | 897 | 38% | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 1292 | 1450 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 166 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 173 | 0 | 0 | 1460 |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semih Kaya Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Alex Gogic Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Vitaliy Yermakov Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Petro Stasyuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Federico Álvarez Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Dimitrios Chatziisaias Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Mykola Morozyuk Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Andriy Ponedelnik Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €900k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2024 | Career break | Zorya Lugansk | Unknown | €500k |
| 9 Jul 2023 | Pafos | Career break | Unknown | €600k |
| 3 Jul 2022 | Zorya Lugansk | Pafos | Free / loan | €800k |
| 28 Jul 2020 | Vardar | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €550k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Makedonija | Vardar | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Salgueiro | Makedonija | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Tupi | Salgueiro | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Metropolitano | Tupi | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.