Hjörtur Hermannsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hjörtur Hermannsson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €209k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2119 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1129
- Opponent strength
- 1249
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €142k – €375k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 56 pts; league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 73% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -41% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | CB | 24 | 2119 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1249 | 1129 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | CB | 9 | 810 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1240 | 1069 | 0.35 |
| 2020/21 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CB | 16 | 1020 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1315 | 1371 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CB | 17 | 1419 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1268 | 1326 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CB | 10 | 677 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1268 | 1364 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CB | 18 | 1306 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1249 | 1502 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CB | 24 | 2043 | 87% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1313 | 1440 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 3 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 1 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | 1392 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 207 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 3 | 255 | 1 | 0 | 1422 |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 4 | 271 | 0 | 0 | 1363 |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 4 | 356 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Tzanetopoulos Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Valeriy Bondarenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Konstantinos Giannoulis Super League 1 · 2020 | 33 | €325k | €250k | fell |
| Michal Pazdan Super Lig · 2020 | 33 | €550k | €350k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kolovetsios Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €500k | €700k | rose |
| Danny Seaborne Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Ante Kulusic Super Lig · 2020 | 34 | €325k | €150k | fell |
| Ricky Foster Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 34 | €350k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2025 | Carrarese | Volos NFC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 26 Aug 2024 | Pisa | Carrarese | Unknown | €700k |
| 16 Jul 2021 | Bröndby IF | Pisa | Free / loan | €800k |
| 7 Jul 2016 | PSV U21 | Bröndby IF | €300k | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | IFK Göteborg | PSV U21 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 16 Feb 2016 | PSV U21 | IFK Göteborg | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | PSV U19 | PSV U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jun 2012 | Fylkir | PSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Sept 2011 | Fylkir U19 | Fylkir | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.