Clinton Mata

33 yrs · Centre-back (also RB, RM) · Angola
Olympique Lyon · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€933k – €2.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.2M – €6.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€618k – €1.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€638k – €5.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€933k – €2.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.2M – €6.1M
Projected value (24 months)€618k – €1.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Clinton Mata's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-6.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh88.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.6 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.8M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-60% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2836 (93% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.01
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1554
Opponent strength
1466
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€618k – €1.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; relative output down 88% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -70% to -44%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Olympique LyonLigue 1CB32283693%000.000.02146615540.88
2024/25Olympique LyonLigue 1CB29237077%040.150.12147015710.88
2023/24Olympique LyonLigue 1RB28222273%030.120.13147315210.87
2022/23Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueRB21156351%030.170.08128714910.58
2021/22Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueRB33291495%120.090.06133115120.49
2020/21Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueRB34286294%120.090.05134115700.55
2019/20Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueCB25211581%020.090.06137215780.63
2018/19Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueRM16104839%110.170.14136415460.65
2017/18KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueRB16134050%020.130.11137914450.63
2017/18Royal Charleroi Sporting ClubJupiler Pro LeagueRB190%000.000.08123514290.63
2016/17Royal Charleroi Sporting ClubJupiler Pro LeagueRB27228084%020.080.09133713910.62
2015/16Royal Charleroi Sporting ClubJupiler Pro LeagueRB18115443%010.080.09134013250.57
2014/15Royal Charleroi Sporting ClubJupiler Pro LeagueRB1448218%000.000.07132813770.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueOlympique Lyon9726011438
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsAngola218000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueOlympique Lyon9793001528
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV3158001744
2022/23Volkswagen SupercupClub Brugge KV190001420
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV6528001722
2021/22Volkswagen SupercupClub Brugge KV188101414
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV6534001615
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueClub Brugge KV2180001504
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV4360011601
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingClub Brugge KV4360001544
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueClub Brugge KV2152001666
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV4207001631

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Aleksandr Martynovich
Premier Liga · 2019
32€4.0M€1.2Mfell
Miranda
Serie A · 2017
33€9.0M€3.5Mfell
Abdurrahman Dereli
Super Lig · 2013
32€1.0M€300kfell
Makoto Hasebe
Bundesliga · 2019
35€1.0M€800kfell
Renato Civelli
Ligue 1 · 2016
33€1.0M€500kfell
Wes Morgan
Premier League · 2018
34€3.0M€1.2Mfell
Jonathan Gradit
Ligue 1 · 2022
30€4.5M€4.5Mflat
Marc Planus
Ligue 1 · 2013
31€2.5M€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
6 Jul 2023Club BruggeLyon€5.0M€4.5M
1 Jul 2018R Charleroi SCClub Brugge€1.5M€2.5M
30 Jun 2018GenkR Charleroi SCFree / loan€2.5M
12 Aug 2017R Charleroi SCGenkFree / loan€3.0M
1 Jul 2014KAS EupenR Charleroi SCFree / loan€150k
1 Jan 2012KAS Eupen U21KAS EupenUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010CS Visé U19KAS Eupen U21Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Clinton Mata · MoneyballAI