Jonathan Gradit
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jonathan Gradit's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 74.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -70% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 809 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1569
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €492k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 43 pts; team strength up (+85 Elo); relative output up 84% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -73% to -55%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 809 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 10 | 809 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1493 | 1569 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2116 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1462 | 1484 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 26 | 2116 | 69% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1453 | 1518 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 33 | 2830 | 83% | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1426 | 1626 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 35 | 3073 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1426 | 1492 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 33 | 2828 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1453 | 1371 | 0.75 |
| 2018/19 | SM Caen | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1922 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1449 | 1286 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Lens | 2 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 1442 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RC Lens | 6 | 512 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | RC Lens | 2 | 193 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hubocan Ligue 1 · 2017 | 32 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Koffi Djidji Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Federico Balzaretti Serie A · 2014 | 33 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Álvaro González Ligue 1 · 2022 | 32 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
| Federico Fazio Serie A · 2020 | 33 | €3.2M | €600k | fell |
| Dejan Lovren Ligue 1 · 2024 | 35 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Ignazio Abate Serie A · 2018 | 32 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Kiko Femenía Laliga · 2023 | 32 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2019 | SM Caen | Lens | €400k | €2.0M |
| 14 Jul 2018 | Tours FC | SM Caen | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Tours B | Tours FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bayonne | Tours B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Jul 2012 | G. Bordeaux B | Bayonne | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Bordeaux U19 | G. Bordeaux B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.