
Maximilian Eggestein
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maximilian Eggestein's performance-implied value at EUR 9.0M-18.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-12.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-8.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (3060 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.4M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €8.7M
Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> DM; relative output up 85% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -65% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | DM | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1486 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 33 | 2855 | 93% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1493 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 33 | 2919 | 95% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1493 | 1481 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 31 | 2459 | 80% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1528 | 1561 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 31 | 2205 | 72% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1516 | 1543 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | DM | 33 | 2943 | 96% | 2 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 1533 | 1384 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CM | 32 | 2856 | 93% | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1533 | 1428 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CM | 34 | 3053 | 100% | 5 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 1511 | 1564 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CM | 33 | 2698 | 88% | 2 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 1516 | 1510 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | DM | 15 | 889 | 29% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1529 | 1516 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CM | 7 | 172 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1446 | 1459 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | AM | 2 | 20 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1627 | 1451 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 13 | 1133 | 2 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 510 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 260 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 10 | 872 | 1 | 3 | 1519 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 170 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 7 | 397 | 0 | 1 | 1487 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 391 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 500 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 5 | 480 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 5 | 469 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 4 | 320 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Valbuena Ligue 1 · 2013 | 29 | €15.0M | €11.5M | fell |
| Bryan Cristante Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €20.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Christian Günter Bundesliga · 2021 | 28 | €12.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Benjamin André Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Joan Verdú Laliga · 2013 | 30 | €7.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Hugo Viana Liga Portugal · 2013 | 30 | €8.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Steven Nzonzi Premier League · 2015 | 27 | €7.5M | €30.0M | rose |
| Fernando Belluschi Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €6.5M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2021 | Werder Bremen | Freiburg | €5.0M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | W. Bremen II | Werder Bremen | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | W. Bremen U19 | W. Bremen II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | W. Bremen U17 | W. Bremen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Havelse Yth. | W. Bremen U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Ricklingen Jgd. | Havelse Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.