Maximilian Eggestein

29 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM, DM) · Germany
SC Freiburg · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 181 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€10.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.9M – €12.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€9.0M – €18.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.1M – €8.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.7M – €14.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.9M – €12.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€9.0M – €18.6M
Projected value (24 months)€4.1M – €8.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€10.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Maximilian Eggestein's performance-implied value at EUR 9.0M-18.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-12.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-8.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (3060 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 18

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh88.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.6 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €7.4M vs market €10.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-45% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €30.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
3060 (100% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.12
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1551
Opponent strength
1486
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.1M – €8.7M

Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> DM; relative output up 85% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -65% to -23%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SC FreiburgBundesligaDM343060100%310.120.10148615510.94
2024/25SC FreiburgBundesligaCM33285593%200.060.09149315050.94
2023/24SC FreiburgBundesligaCM33291995%120.090.10149314811.01
2022/23SC FreiburgBundesligaCM31245980%120.110.11152815611.04
2021/22SC FreiburgBundesligaCM31220572%120.120.14151615431.05
2020/21SV Werder BremenBundesligaDM33294396%250.210.20153313841.06
2019/20SV Werder BremenBundesligaCM32285693%130.130.15153314281.06
2018/19SV Werder BremenBundesligaCM343053100%550.290.21151115641.05
2017/18SV Werder BremenBundesligaCM33269888%240.200.23151615101.04
2016/17SV Werder BremenBundesligaDM1588929%100.100.11152915161.06
2015/16SV Werder BremenBundesligaCM71726%000.000.15144614591.02
2014/15SV Werder BremenBundesligaAM2201%000.000.47162714511.03

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg131133201490
2025/26Dfb PokalSC Freiburg551010—
2024/25Dfb PokalSC Freiburg326001—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg10872131519
2023/24Dfb PokalSC Freiburg217010—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg7397011487
2022/23Dfb PokalSC Freiburg539100—
2021/22Dfb PokalSC Freiburg550010—
2021/22Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen19000—
2020/21Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen548001—
2019/20Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen436001—
2018/19Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen546922—
2017/18Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen432010—
2015/16Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen15600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mathieu Valbuena
Ligue 1 · 2013
29€15.0M€11.5Mfell
Bryan Cristante
Serie A · 2024
29€20.0M€7.0Mfell
Christian Günter
Bundesliga · 2021
28€12.0M€7.5Mfell
Benjamin André
Ligue 1 · 2018
28€10.0M€8.0Mfell
Joan Verdú
Laliga · 2013
30€7.0M€1.0Mfell
Hugo Viana
Liga Portugal · 2013
30€8.5M€3.0Mfell
Steven Nzonzi
Premier League · 2015
27€7.5M€30.0Mrose
Fernando Belluschi
Super Lig · 2013
30€6.5M€4.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
18 Aug 2021Werder BremenFreiburg€5.0M€7.5M
1 Jul 2015W. Bremen IIWerder BremenUnknown€300k
1 Jul 2014W. Bremen U19W. Bremen IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013W. Bremen U17W. Bremen U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Havelse Yth.W. Bremen U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2004Ricklingen Jgd.Havelse Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Maximilian Eggestein · MoneyballAI