
Christian Günter
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Christian Günter's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 81.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1549 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1483
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €647k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -80% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1549 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 24 | 1549 | 51% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1483 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 29 | 2324 | 76% | 2 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 1483 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LM | 15 | 1066 | 35% | 1 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 1505 | 1481 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 33 | 2748 | 90% | 1 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1516 | 1561 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 2 | 10 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 1522 | 1543 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LM | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 3 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 1529 | 1492 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LM | 34 | 3031 | 99% | 2 | 10 | 0.36 | 0.28 | 1538 | 1477 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 7 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 1519 | 1413 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 1 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1514 | 1415 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 31 | 2696 | 88% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1537 | 1444 | 1.06 |
| 2014/15 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 34 | 2886 | 94% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1541 | 1426 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 29 | 2323 | 76% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1570 | 1454 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 7 | 319 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1446 | 1547 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 8 | 614 | 0 | 2 | 1456 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 292 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 3 | 199 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 35 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 8 | 659 | 0 | 2 | 1480 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 499 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 6 | 630 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Freiburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1375 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 5 | 381 | 0 | 2 | 1488 |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 195 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Serie A · 2015 | 33 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| David Abraham Bundesliga · 2019 | 33 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jérôme Boateng Ligue 1 · 2022 | 34 | €3.5M | €400k | fell |
| Naldo Bundesliga · 2017 | 35 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| João Carlos Premier Liga · 2014 | 32 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Philippe Mexès Serie A · 2014 | 32 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| François Clerc Ligue 1 · 2015 | 32 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Yuri Berchiche Laliga · 2024 | 34 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2012 | SC Freiburg U19 | Freiburg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | SC Freiburg U17 | SC Freiburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Freiburg Yth. | SC Freiburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Tennenbro. Yth. | Freiburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.