Christian Günter

33 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Germany
SC Freiburg · Bundesliga · Foot: left · Height: 184 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€628k – €2.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.7M – €3.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€647k – €1.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€697k – €3.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€628k – €2.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.7M – €3.7M
Projected value (24 months)€647k – €1.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Christian Günter's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh81.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.3M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-53% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1549 (51% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.17
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
81 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1551
Opponent strength
1483
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€647k – €1.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; relative output down 28% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -80% to -58%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1549 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SC FreiburgBundesligaLB24154951%030.170.12148315510.94
2024/25SC FreiburgBundesligaLB29232476%240.230.16148315050.94
2023/24SC FreiburgBundesligaLM15106635%130.340.19150514811.01
2022/23SC FreiburgBundesligaLB33274890%140.160.13151615611.04
2021/22SC FreiburgBundesligaLB343060100%2100.350.22152215431.05
2020/21SC FreiburgBundesligaLM343060100%330.180.19152914921.06
2019/20SC FreiburgBundesligaLM34303199%2100.360.28153814771.06
2018/19SC FreiburgBundesligaLB32288094%070.220.19151914131.05
2017/18SC FreiburgBundesligaLB343060100%150.180.16151414151.04
2016/17SC FreiburgBundesligaLB31269688%020.070.09153714441.06
2014/15SC FreiburgBundesligaLB34288694%120.090.11154114261.03
2013/14SC FreiburgBundesligaLB29232376%010.040.06157014541.03
2012/13SC FreiburgBundesligaLB731910%000.000.07144615471.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg8614021456
2025/26Dfb PokalSC Freiburg529201—
2024/25Dfb PokalSC Freiburg325500—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg3199001610
2023/24Dfb PokalSC Freiburg13510—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg8659021480
2022/23Dfb PokalSC Freiburg549900—
2021/22Dfb PokalSC Freiburg663000—
2020/21Dfb PokalSC Freiburg218000—
2019/20Dfb PokalSC Freiburg221000—
2018/19Dfb PokalSC Freiburg221000—
2017/18Dfb PokalSC Freiburg327000—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingSC Freiburg2180011375
2016/17Dfb PokalSC Freiburg221000—
2014/15Dfb PokalSC Freiburg327000—
2013/14Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg5381021488
2013/14Dfb PokalSC Freiburg319500—
2012/13Dfb PokalSC Freiburg1600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alex
Serie A · 2015
33€2.0M€1.0Mfell
David Abraham
Bundesliga · 2019
33€2.5M€1.0Mfell
Jérôme Boateng
Ligue 1 · 2022
34€3.5M€400kfell
Naldo
Bundesliga · 2017
35€1.5M€500kfell
João Carlos
Premier Liga · 2014
32€2.5M€500kfell
Philippe Mexès
Serie A · 2014
32€2.5M€500kfell
François Clerc
Ligue 1 · 2015
32€1.5M€500kfell
Yuri Berchiche
Laliga · 2024
34€1.8M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2012SC Freiburg U19FreiburgUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010SC Freiburg U17SC Freiburg U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Freiburg Yth.SC Freiburg U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006Tennenbro. Yth.Freiburg Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.