Brice Samba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Brice Samba's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-7.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.3M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2880 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1458
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -58% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1458 | 1520 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | GK | 17 | 1530 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1469 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | GK | 15 | 1350 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1456 | 1484 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1463 | 1518 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1438 | 1626 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | SM Caen | Ligue 1 | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1458 | 1286 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | SM Caen | Ligue 1 | GK | 4 | 315 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1548 | 1299 | 0.85 |
| 2013/14 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | GK | 1 | 68 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1423 | 1471 | 0.79 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Lens | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1442 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RC Lens | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1666 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | RC Lens | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cédric Carrasso Ligue 1 · 2013 | 32 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Samir Handanovic Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Benoît Costil Ligue 1 · 2018 | 31 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Salvatore Sirigu Serie A · 2019 | 32 | €7.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Sergey Ryzhikov Premier Liga · 2013 | 33 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Antonio Mirante Serie A · 2014 | 31 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Ciprian Tatarusanu Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Danijel Subasic Ligue 1 · 2016 | 32 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2025 | Lens | Stade Rennais | €14.0M | €15.0M |
| 5 Jul 2022 | Nott'm Forest | Lens | €5.0M | €2.5M |
| 7 Aug 2019 | SM Caen | Nott'm Forest | €2.1M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Marseille | SM Caen | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | AS Nancy | Marseille | Free / loan | €500k |
| 9 Jul 2015 | Marseille | AS Nancy | Free / loan | €600k |
| 4 Jan 2013 | Le Havre AC | Marseille | €400k | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Le Havre U19 | Le Havre AC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Le Havre U17 | Le Havre U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Le Havre Youth | Le Havre U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | ALM Évreux Jgd. | Le Havre Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.