Nick Pope

34 yrs · Goalkeeper · England
Newcastle United · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 198 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.9M – €6.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.2M – €8.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.2M – €2.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.8M – €6.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.9M – €6.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.2M – €8.0M
Projected value (24 months)€1.2M – €2.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nick Pope's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-8.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-2.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceElite97.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €2.6M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-69% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2417 (71% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
97 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1631
Opponent strength
1608
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.2M – €2.7M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -72% to -48%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueGK27241771%000.000.00160816311.30
2024/25Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueGK28252074%000.000.00158516531.23
2023/24Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueGK15134639%000.000.00160016101.14
2022/23Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueGK37326295%000.000.00155516781.23
2021/22Burnley FCPremier LeagueGK36324095%000.000.00157514421.17
2020/21Burnley FCPremier LeagueGK32288084%000.000.00154914801.19
2019/20Burnley FCPremier LeagueGK383420100%000.000.00158915351.14
2017/18Burnley FCPremier LeagueGK35311491%000.000.00153915021.15

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueNewcastle United8720011643
2024/25Fa CupNewcastle United19000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueNewcastle United5450001688
2021/22Fa CupBurnley FC19000—
2018/19Fa CupBurnley FC218000—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingBurnley FC114001400
2017/18Fa CupBurnley FC19000—
2016/17Fa CupBurnley FC327000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Beto
Laliga · 2014
32€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Gorka Iraizoz
Laliga · 2014
33€2.5M€1.5Mfell
Vicente Guaita
Premier League · 2019
32€5.0M€2.0Mfell
Wayne Hennessey
Premier League · 2019
32€5.0M€1.0Mfell
Hugo Lloris
Premier League · 2023
37€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Petr Cech
Premier League · 2018
36€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Claudio Bravo
Premier League · 2017
34€8.0M€2.5Mfell
Carlos Kameni
Laliga · 2016
32€5.0M€450kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022BurnleyNewcastle€11.5M€15.0M
19 Jul 2016CharltonBurnley€1.3M€200k
31 May 2015BuryCharltonFree / loan€100k
6 Jan 2015CharltonBuryFree / loan€100k
31 May 2014York CityCharltonFree / loanData unavailable
16 Jan 2014CharltonYork CityFree / loanData unavailable
28 Nov 2013York CityCharltonFree / loanData unavailable
22 Nov 2013CharltonYork CityFree / loanData unavailable
26 Oct 2013AldershotCharltonFree / loanData unavailable
26 Sept 2013CharltonAldershotFree / loanData unavailable
7 Apr 2013Cambridge Utd.CharltonFree / loanData unavailable
7 Mar 2013CharltonCambridge Utd.Free / loanData unavailable
19 Jan 2012Welling Utd.CharltonFree / loanData unavailable
22 Dec 2011CharltonWelling Utd.Free / loanData unavailable
15 Oct 2011Harrow BoroughCharltonFree / loanData unavailable
10 Aug 2011CharltonHarrow BoroughFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Bury TownCharltonUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Ipswich U18Bury TownFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.