
Nick Pope
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nick Pope's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-8.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-2.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 97.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -69% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2417 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1608
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €2.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -72% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 27 | 2417 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1608 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 28 | 2520 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1585 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 15 | 1346 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1600 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3262 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1555 | 1678 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Burnley FC | Premier League | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1575 | 1442 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Burnley FC | Premier League | GK | 32 | 2880 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1549 | 1480 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Burnley FC | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1589 | 1535 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Burnley FC | Premier League | GK | 35 | 3114 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1539 | 1502 | 1.15 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 8 | 720 | 0 | 1 | 1643 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Burnley FC | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1400 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beto Laliga · 2014 | 32 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gorka Iraizoz Laliga · 2014 | 33 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Vicente Guaita Premier League · 2019 | 32 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Wayne Hennessey Premier League · 2019 | 32 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Hugo Lloris Premier League · 2023 | 37 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Petr Cech Premier League · 2018 | 36 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Claudio Bravo Premier League · 2017 | 34 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Carlos Kameni Laliga · 2016 | 32 | €5.0M | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Burnley | Newcastle | €11.5M | €15.0M |
| 19 Jul 2016 | Charlton | Burnley | €1.3M | €200k |
| 31 May 2015 | Bury | Charlton | Free / loan | €100k |
| 6 Jan 2015 | Charlton | Bury | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 May 2014 | York City | Charlton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Jan 2014 | Charlton | York City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Nov 2013 | York City | Charlton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 22 Nov 2013 | Charlton | York City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Oct 2013 | Aldershot | Charlton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Sept 2013 | Charlton | Aldershot | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 7 Apr 2013 | Cambridge Utd. | Charlton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 7 Mar 2013 | Charlton | Cambridge Utd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 19 Jan 2012 | Welling Utd. | Charlton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 22 Dec 2011 | Charlton | Welling Utd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 15 Oct 2011 | Harrow Borough | Charlton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 Aug 2011 | Charlton | Harrow Borough | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Bury Town | Charlton | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Ipswich U18 | Bury Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.